Squandering away our most precious resource
Strengthening Pak-Russia relations
By: Muhammad Zahid Rifat | September 27, 2024
A country’s foreign policy , is important as it determines the state of relationship with other countries.
The Father of the Nation, Quaid-i-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah, had stated in 1948, prior to his death owing to prolonged illness, that “Our foreign policy is one of friendliness and goodwill towards all nations of the world, we do not cherish aggressive designs against any country or nation.”
In pursuance of this saying , Pakistan has all along been maintaining not only good, friendly relations but also taking measures to further strengthen and promote these with friendly countries around the world.
Frequent exchange of leadership and delegations between friendly countries like Russia and Pakistan go a long way in further strengthening and promoting bilateral relations and paving the way for further mutual cooperation in different sectors for mutual benefits in the coming months and years, if not days and weeks
Frequent interaction with the top leadership of friendly countries and exchange of delegations for holding important talks to boost cooperation in different sectors also, was a key to further strengthening ties with other countries.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk along with a delegation recently paid a two-day goodwill visit to Pakistan and went through a hectic schedule of engagements, including meetings with the top civil and military leadership.
After holding talks with his Pakistani counterpart Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar , the Russian Deputy Prime Minister addressed a joint press conference with the host Deputy Prime Minister wherein he quite categorically stated that Russian supports Pakistan’s bid to join BRICS, a group of Brazil , Russia, India, China and South Africa, and also wants to have deeper trade ties between the two countries. The Russian leader also discussed the prospects for collaboration between Pakistan and the Eurasian Economic Union which includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Caucasia and Russia and also discussed the opportunities for implementing a free trade agreement between Pakistan and these five countries and was looking forward to holding further discussions to finalize such an agreement.
He also stated that the upcoming intergovernmental commission meeting later this year in Russia will provide an opportunity to further enhance trade and economic relations between the two countries. He went on to further state that their goals and visions for development and economic ties within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization were well aligned. particularly regarding collectivity, climate agenda, food security, energy transition, and energy security.
The visiting Russian Deputy Prime Minister and host Deputy Prime Minister also held delegation-level talks during which Pakistan and Russian agree to enhance dialogue and mutual cooperation in various sectors, including trade, industry, energy, connectivity, science, technology, and education. The host Deputy PM said that that discussions with his Russian counterpart focused on expanding economic relations between the countries, bilateral trade had reached $1 billion last year and both countries prioritized expanding trade ties by addressing logistical and related issues and pointedly stated that Pakistan views Russia as a key player in West South, and Central Asia and strengthening mutually beneficial relations with Russia was also a priority for Pakistan’s foreign policy.
The visiting Russian Deputy Prime Minister also held separate meetings with President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and COAS Gen Asim Munir and two sides reiterated their commitment to further expanding trade and economic ties, besides enhancing regional connectivity to strengthen bilateral relations and also increase defence cooperation.He told Pakistani leadership that his country wanted to improve cooperation with Pakistan in the fields of food, security, and science and technology.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk along with his delegation also called on PM Shehbaz Sharif and exchanged views regarding further improvement in the prevailing bilateral relations between the two friendly countries.
PM Shehbaz Sharif on the occasion reiterated the resolve that his country was keen to expand trade, economic, energy, connectivity and security cooperation with Russia, Pakistan considered strengthening of relations with Russia as an important priority of its foreign policy.
He told the visiting Russian dignitary that he was looking forward to welcoming his Russian counterpart Mikhail Mishustin to Islamabad next month and also recalled his very fruitful discussion with President Vladimir Putin in July earlier this year at the SCO Summit.The distinguished guest on his part characterized Pakistan-Russia relations as constructive and mutually beneficial and reiterated his country’s resolve to have deeper relations with Pakistan.
The host PM also witnessed the signing of Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) by the Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk and his host Deputy Prime Minister Senator Muhammad Ishaq Dar. which signifies the shared understanding and desire of the two countries to further strengthen mutually advantageous cooperation in all areas of shared interest especially trade, investment, IT, agriculture, science and technology and education.
Though the Russian Deputy Prime Minister’s visit was pf just two days duration, still it has shown signs of a lot of goodwill and indications of further improvement and mutual exchanges as a 75-member strong Pakistani delegation is scheduled to visit Russia in October to further explore avenues for economic cooperation between the two countries.
Frequent exchange of leadership and delegations between friendly countries like Russia and Pakistan go a long way in further strengthening and promoting bilateral relations and paving the way for further mutual cooperation in different sectors for mutual benefits in the coming months and years, if not days and weeks.
Rethinking - Development
By: Dr Mahboob ul Haq | September 27, 2024
The Pakistani economy has long been in search of a sustainable path for development, one that ensures inclusive growth and addresses the country’s deep-seated structural problems. Despite its vast potential, Pakistan finds itself trapped in a cycle of economic crises, characterized by a recurring reliance on external borrowing, primarily from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Ultimately, the search for a new economic paradigm in Pakistan requires a holistic approach. One that does not merely focus on short-term fixes or external borrowing but prioritizes long-term investments in human development. The lessons of Mahbub ul Haq’s HDI framework remain as relevant today as ever: economic growth must be inclusive, sustainable, and centred on improving the well-being of all citizens, not just a privileged few. Without these reforms, Pakistan will continue to find itself in a perpetual cycle of economic crises, unable to realize its true potential on the world stage
Central to this search for a new paradigm is the vision of Dr Mahboob ul Haq, Pakistan’s former Finance Minister, whose ideas about economic development remain pertinent today. Haq’s emphasis on human development rather than sheer economic growth is especially relevant in a country where inequality continues to undermine social progress.
Dr Mahboob ul Haq’s central critique of Pakistan’s economic system was its capture by a small elite. He famously pointed out that the country’s growth had been “hijacked by a handful of families.” Even today, this reality persists, as wealth remains concentrated in the hands of a few, leaving the majority of the population to struggle with poor living conditions. Haq’s introduction of the Human Development Index (HDI) was a pioneering effort to shift the global focus from GDP to more meaningful measures of development— education, health, political freedom, and security.
In a country like Pakistan, where a significant portion of the population lives on less than $3 a day, Haq’s vision provides a critical framework for addressing the nation’s shortcomings. His belief was that without human development, economic growth would be unsustainable and exclusionary, a lesson Pakistan has yet to fully embrace.
In today’s Pakistan, the current account deficit is a reflection of structural weaknesses within the economy. The economy’s reliance on imports and a consumption-driven model has contributed significantly to this deficit. Short-term policies and emergency measures, often dictated by IMF loan programmes, have failed to address the underlying issues.
Mahboob ul Haq recognized that without long-term investments in human capital—education, healthcare, and social protection—economic stability would remain elusive. Unfortunately, successive governments have lacked both the preparation and imagination necessary to implement the structural reforms needed to move beyond this cycle of dependency.
The country’s current economic situation is one of stagnation, both in terms of exports and investments. The high level of consumption, with 95 percent of goods being imported, is unsustainable. It has led to a vicious cycle where Pakistan, facing a balance of payments crisis, turns to the IMF for short-term relief. But these loans come with stringent conditions that further constrain economic policy and often lead to austerity measures that exacerbate poverty and inequality. Instead of fostering growth, these policies have led to a situation where the economy is unable to break free from its dependence on external financing.
Excessive consumption has also crowded out investment in productive sectors. This has been particularly evident in the manufacturing and export sectors, where growth has been sluggish at best. The lack of significant exports means that Pakistan is unable to generate the foreign exchange needed to service its debt or invest in its future. In a country where tax revenues are low and public services are underfunded, the reliance on imports and external borrowing has created a fragile economic environment. Structural reform is desperately needed to correct these imbalances and put the economy on a more sustainable path.
The media, in turn, has been largely focused on domestic stories, often missing the broader implications of the economic policies being pursued. The absence of a serious public discourse on economic reform has further entrenched the status quo. There is a widespread trust deficit, both within the country and among international investors, which has led to insufficient investment in key sectors. This lack of investment has kept productivity low, stunted technological advancement, and hampered economic diversification. As a result, Pakistan continues to rely on consumption and imports to drive its economy, further exacerbating its structural weaknesses.
One of the most alarming features of the current situation is that all roads seem to lead to the IMF. Despite various governments’ pledges to break free from IMF dependency, the country continues to turn to the institution whenever faced with an economic crisis. The focus on short-term fixes has precluded any meaningful discussion about long-term economic strategy. This reliance on IMF loans is not a sustainable solution. Instead, Pakistan must focus on increasing its exports and attracting investment, particularly in sectors that can provide long-term economic benefits, such as technology, agriculture, and manufacturing.
At the same time, Pakistan’s relationship with China, particularly through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), offers both opportunities and challenges. The CPEC projects have provided much-needed infrastructure investment, but the expected benefits in terms of increased exports and job creation have not yet materialized.
Export growth remains stagnant, and the promised industrial development along the CPEC route has been slower than anticipated. If properly managed, however, the CPEC initiative could provide the kind of investment and technological transfer needed to kickstart Pakistan’s economy. But this will require more than just infrastructure; it will require a comprehensive strategy to integrate these investments into the broader economy.
Balochistan – Beyond Myths and Biases
By: Rakhshanda Mehtab | September 27, 2024
The accession of Kalat in Pakistan is a significant event in the complex history of Balochistan that has profound effects on the region’s socioeconomic structure. This pivotal moment, however, has also exposed deep-seated divisions within the diverse ethnic groups of Balochistan. The external forces have been quick to exploit these fractures, spreading misinformation to further their agendas.
Throughout history, young people have often been used as tools in political games, their minds moulded by powerful stories that benefit those in power. This isn’t a new tactic; from the Nazis shaping German youth to today’s efforts to influence public opinion, young people have often been fed distorted truths.
In Pakistan, we’re seeing a similar pattern. Liberals, leftist academics, and ethnic nationalists are joining forces to spread a narrative that twists historical facts and creates division.
Universities in Gwadar, Turbat, and Panjgur have become centres for this dissent where misinformation spreads easily.
Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah’s legal acumen recognized Kalat’s historical supremacy, but internal tribal conflicts and the Khan’s delaying tactics favoured Pakistan.
Youth must understand the history of their region. A solid grasp of history enables individuals to confront false narratives and cope with the uncertainty surrounding them.
We need to look at Balochistan’s colonial background to understand the roots of this manipulation. The region was formed as a British agency in 1877, with Quetta as its capital. The British established a system of governance by providing financial incentives to local chieftains and sardars to maintain peace in their regions. This system, known as the Sandeman System, still influences the political landscape of Balochistan today, reinforcing the power of the sardars.
The historical backdrop of Kalat is significant. The Khanate of Kalat was established in the 15th century and changed hands between the Afghan and Mughal empires multiple times. By 1947, the Khan of Kalat adopted a delaying strategy regarding accession to Pakistan, leading to the rejection of Kalat’s suzerainty by the rulers of Kharan, Makran, and Lasbela.
Balochistan’s population is ethnically and linguistically diverse, comprising Baloch, Pashtun, Brahui, Kurd, and Hazara communities. The tribal chiefs of Kharan, Makran, and Lasbela favoured immediate accession to Pakistan, rejecting Kalat’s dominance. This diversity is both a strength and a challenge, as it requires careful navigation of various identities and interests.
The opposition to renaming the province as “Balochistan” stems from the fact that more than half of its population is non-Baloch. The region’s geopolitical significance is underscored by its connections with Iran, UAE, China, and India, whose interests influence the local dynamics. These international connections add another layer of complexity to the region’s political landscape.
The Pakistani government’s development policies and financial aid have inadvertently strengthened the Sardar power, leaving the general populace without alternative leadership. This has resulted in a lack of access to justice, administration, and legislative representation for the people of Balochistan. The central government’s efforts, while well-intentioned, often miss the mark in addressing the root causes of the region’s issues.
The arrest of the Khan of Kalat and the claims of forced accession are often cited by Baloch nationalists. However, these claims are far from reality. Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah’s legal acumen recognized Kalat’s historical supremacy, but internal tribal conflicts and the Khan’s delaying tactics favoured Pakistan. Jinnah’s disappointment with the delay led to the immediate accession of Kharan, Makran, and Lasbela, separate from Kalat. This decision was driven by pragmatic considerations, reflecting the complex interplay of local and national interests.
Initially, foreign agencies like RAW, MI-6, and others intervened in Balochistan to fuel nationalist and separatist movements. Their influence persists through ideologies and slogans, but the affected population remains minimal. These external influences have often exacerbated local tensions, complicating efforts to achieve lasting peace and stability.
The Baloch people are under the sway of their archaic and exploitative elite, with no end in sight to this exploitation. Efforts to mislead the youth, particularly by tribal leaders like Bizenjo, Mengal, Marri, and Bugti, have driven them towards militancy. This manipulation of young minds is a strategic move to maintain the status quo and resist meaningful change.
Educational institutions in Gwadar, Turbat, and Panjgur have become hotbeds of Baloch antagonism, further complicating the situation. These universities, intended to be centres of learning and progress, have instead become breeding grounds for dissent and misinformation.
The ongoing struggle between the state and the Baloch youth gives external forces plenty of chances to exploit the situation for their benefit. The youth must recognize and counter these influences to build a stable and united Balochistan. Only through collective effort and awareness, we can ensure a brighter future for all communities in the region.
Ethical leadership and universities of Pakistan
By: S M Ali | September 27, 2024
Nature has been kind to Pakistan. The country enjoys access to the three major rivers of the mighty Indus, and the country is home to more than 7,000 glaciers, the highest number of such natural freshwater reservoirs anywhere other than the polar regions. These glaciers have been providing a perpetual source of water for the country, which alongside rainwater, feed the mighty rivers which traverse Pakistan, before pouring into the Arabian Sea. However, rising temperatures due to global warming have begun to cause an alarming level of glacial melt. In the short term, glacial melts lead to the creation of glacial lakes, which can burst when more melted water keeps gushing into them. Melting glaciers also increase the amount of water in the rivers which, coinciding with heavy rainfalls, causes flooding further afield. In the longer term, the reduction in the size of these glaciers will deplete water availability within major rivers on which the lives and livelihoods of multitudes of people depend.
Rather than thinking about water conservation and improving water efficiency, Pakistan has been wasting its precious freshwater resources using wasteful flood irrigation, and due to badly maintained irrigation systems which also cause massive water losses. Over 90 per cent of the country's freshwater is diverted to agriculture, where a significant proportion of it is lost due to inadequate water management, and due to the producing of water-thirsty crops like sugarcane.
Besides using irrigation systems which tap the rivers flowing out of glaciers, Pakistan has also been exploiting its groundwater sources with reckless abandon. Now our policymakers are keen to entice the Gulf states and China into investing in agriculture in the desperate bid to earn foreign exchange, which threatens to further deplete underground water sources.
Meanwhile, marginalised farmers have been experiencing major water stress, especially those whose land is located at the tail end of watercourses, where water often run out long due to inefficient water use by those more affluent, who occupy land at the head of watercourses.
Conversely, ordinary citizens across many rural areas and in unregulated and poorer urban neighborhoods don't have enough water to meet their household needs. Badly maintained water lines are often located perilously close to sewage systems, and there have been repeated reports of drinking water mixing with sanitation. Sporadic water tests in major cities have revealed unacceptable levels of faecal matter and heavy metals in water meant for human consumption. It is thus not surprising that water-borne diseases are a major cause of mortality within the country, and they lead to repeated bouts of sickness for adults, which then deplete already meager average household incomes, and cause a loss of productivity.
Women and girls bear the brunt of water scarcity, as the responsibility of fetching water for homes is usually a task relegated to females. The stubborn gender disparity in education, especially when girls become a little older, has also been linked to this onerous responsibility placed on girls to either help their mothers fetch water, or else, to stay at home to look after younger siblings while the mother is out getting water.
Pakistan now has a plethora of policies and plans to ensure equitable water access to all citizens. What we still need is real action which can alleviate the water stress of our smaller farmers and which can provide reliable, convenient and safe sources of water for meeting the daily needs of all households, especially those who cannot afford the luxury of boring their own tube-wells, purchasing water pumps, using filters or purchasing mineral water on a regular basis.
Ethical leadership and universities of Pakistan
By: Dr Intikhab Ulfat | September 27, 2024
Ethical leadership in universities includes adherence to professional standards and principles for public life. However, defining ethical leadership is a complex process, influenced by changing societal trends and leadership styles. Current trends favour shared leadership and empowerment over directive or coercive leadership. Comparing ethical leadership to toxic leadership helps institutions define their own ethical standards, although it is essential to avoid unethical relativism.
Key thinkers in ethical leadership emphasised important principles. Thomas J Sergiovanni (Professor of Education at Trinity University) highlighted the need for leaders to prioritise moral values, build trust and foster a sense of community. Michael Fullan (Educational Consultant and the former Dean of the Ontario Institute for Studies in Education) stressed leadership that drove reforms through equity, empowerment and student welfare. Joseph Murphy (1898-1981; an Irish author) focused on addressing systemic inequalities and advocating for marginalised groups while Andy Hargreaves (Research Professor at Boston College) emphasised collaboration and sustainability in leadership decisions. John West-Burnham (1947-2022; Professor of Educational Leadership at St Mary's University College) called for leaders to lead by example with integrity, fostering a culture of empathy, respect and social responsibility. Lastly, Christopher Day (Professor at the University of Nottingham) underscored the role of ethical leadership in improving teaching and learning standards, advocating for a supportive and inclusive academic environment.
Ethical leadership in Pakistani universities centres on key principles essential for a just and effective academic environment. Leaders must be driven by a strong moral purpose, focusing on holistic student development, quality education and the broader academic community's interests. Integrity and honesty are foundational, requiring leaders to model ethical behaviour consistently and set a positive example. A commitment to equity and social justice is crucial, addressing disparities in education and ensuring inclusivity and equal opportunities, especially for marginalised groups. Collaboration and trust are emphasised, with leaders engaging faculty, staff and students in open dialogue and shared decision-making to build a supportive community. Sustainability is important, with a focus on long-term solutions and enduring reforms rather than short-term fixes. Accountability is vital for upholding ethical standards and maintaining transparency, fostering trust within the institution. Empowering faculty and students to actively participate in decision-making is critical, promoting a culture of shared leadership. Lastly, continuous professional development is essential, with leaders prioritising growth and improvement to enhance the institution's overall quality and effectiveness.
Pakistani universities face significant challenges in maintaining ethical leadership due to resource constraints, political interference and a focus on achieving targets that may compromise academic integrity. These challenges often lead to ethical dilemmas, such as prioritising short-term gains over long-term development or unequal resource distribution.
Ethical leadership in Pakistani universities is essential for fostering a culture of transparency, equity and respect. While challenges abound, leaders who prioritise moral values, collaborative decision-making and long-term sustainability can create positive academic environments that benefit both students and faculty. Addressing ethical lapses requires a concerted effort from university leadership, policymakers and the broader academic community, working together to uphold the highest ethical standards in higher education.
UN and Kashmir’s right to self-determination
By: Dr Muhammad Khan | September 27, 2024
PRIME Minister of Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif is addressing the annual session of UN General Assembly (UNGA) today, 27 September 2024. Before his formal address to the UNGA, he met the leaders of various states and heads of international institutions. During his key meeting with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Premier Sharif emphasized to him to play a role towards implementation of UN Resolutions on Kashmir. Unfortunately, despite passage of 77 years, the UN has not been able to implement its own resolutions over Jammu and Kashmir which provides India an opportunity to manipulate the affairs of the occupied state in its favour.
Premier Sharif asked the UN Chief to give Kashmiris their right to self-determination. He also apprised the UN Secretary General about massive human rights violations of Kashmiris by Indian occupation forces. The Prime Minister will also highlight dynamics of Kashmir dispute and Kashmiri’s right of self-determination during his formal address to the UNGA. While apprising the global leadership about contemporary dimensions of Kashmir dispute, Prime Minister should dwell upon the restoration of pre-August 5, 2019 status (special status under Article 370) of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK).
On August 5, 2019, India unilaterally and illegally annexed IIOJK into the Indian Union, downgrading its statehood to union territories. The second dimension of Kashmir should be the grant of the right of self-determination to people of Kashmir as promised by the UN in its resolutions. Indeed, the establishment of the United Nations Organisation (UNO) at the end of World War-II was the most noble and extraordinary act undertaken by the global leadership to avoid another catastrophic world war. The Charter of UNO was further distinguished with the inclusion of an exceptional humanitarian clause: the ‘right of self-determination’ which was unique in nature and can be attributed to Divinity. Ever since the decolonization of the Subcontinent in 1947, the people of Jammu and Kashmir have been demanding their right of self-determination. Kashmiri trace back this prized right from the resolutions of United Nations which were derivative of it and got accredited from the Charter of this world body. Owing to its paramount significance, the right of self-determination was secured in article 1 of the UN Charter with a universal application, where Kashmiris cannot be made as an exception and kept deprived of this right for ever.
The global decolonization, started immediately after the establishment of the United Nations in 1945 owed a lot to the right of self-determination. This right is the legal right of the people for deciding their future destination. It fits into the main theme of 79th Session of UNGA which states, “Leaving no one behind: acting together for the advancement of peace, sustainable development and human dignity for present and future generations”. The UN must take this theme as the baseline for the resolution of the Kashmir dispute too. Indeed, right of self-determination is the essence of international law, arising from customary international law, secured in a number of international treaties and agreements. Kashmiri’s right of self-determination is also secured in UN resolutions, treaties and commitments of Indian leadership. In the light of the UN mandated right to self-determination, the people of Jammu and Kashmir too had a right to determine their own destiny, their own political status and their own economic, cultural and social development model. United Nations Commission for India and Pakistan (UNCIP) through its Resolution of January 5, 1949 guaranteed a free and fair plebiscite in Jammu and Kashmir with the sole objective of granting the people of Jammu and Kashmiri their right to self-determination. This is the inalienable right; the people of Jammu and Kashmir had in 1947 and valid today in 2024.
The only obstacle in the exercise of this right is Indian obduracy and its illegal occupation of IIOJK, which has constantly caused a barrier since the passage of UNCIP Resolution on 05 January 1949. Since its establishment in 1945, the United Nations ensures grant of this right to over 100 states which is clear from UN membership. The UN had 51 countries as its members in October 1945 and today in 2024, there are over 193 countries forming the member states of this world body. In all cases, the right of self-determination formed the basis of such a large international community.
The only question people of Jammu and Kashmir ask today from the UN and its 193 member States is why they have been deprived from this inalienable right of self-determination, enshrined in the UN Charter and UNCIP Resolutions on Kashmir. Indeed, after passage of this resolution (13 August 1948), India and Pakistan gave their recommendations for the smooth conduct of plebiscite in the entire state of Jammu and Kashmir which were incorporated in the resolution of 05 January 1949. This UNCIP resolution was unanimously adopted by members of the commission thus had no confusion in implementation. India took the Kashmir dispute to the UN on the sole plea that Maharaja of Kashmir had acceded to India. The UN resolutions were indeed the rejection of the Indian stance over Kashmir.
Today, India is cognizant of the fact that, despite its brutal use of force and massive human rights violations in IIOJK, it can neither suppress the popular will of Kashmiris nor can it deprive them from attaining their long-awaited right of self-determination. Since 2019, India is making demographic changes in IIOJK which is yet another violation of UN Charter, UN resolutions on Kashmir, Fourth Geneva Convention and International Law. United Nations, major powers and international community must play their role for the end of Indian occupation in IIOJK and grant of right of self-determination to Kashmiris in the light of UN resolutions.
Pakistan’s economic turnaround
By: Asad Ali | September 26, 2024
PAKISTAN’S economy has been a subject of concern and debate for years, with periods of instability, debt crises and slow growth often overshadowing the country’s potential. However, the recent positive shift in Pakistan’s economic outlook, as highlighted by Moody’s increased economic rating, marks a significant turnaround. This improvement is not a coincidence but a direct result of the exceptional leadership demonstrated by the Pakistani Army chief and the incumbent government led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Moody’s Investors Service, one of the world’s leading credit rating agencies, recently upgraded Pakistan’s economic rating. This move has sparked a wave of optimism within the country and among international investors. The upgrade is a clear signal that Pakistan’s economy is on a more stable and sustainable path, with improved prospects for growth, investment, and financial stability.
The significance of this rating cannot be overstated. It reflects increased confidence in Pakistan’s economic policies and governance, which have been critical in addressing the country’s longstanding challenges. While several factors contribute to such a rating, the role of leadership in steering the nation through turbulent times stands out as a decisive factor. In recent years, Pakistan’s Army chief has taken a more active role in ensuring economic stability, recognizing that a strong economy is crucial for national security. Under the leadership of current Army chief, there has been a concerted effort to support government’s economic initiatives, particularly in areas where security and economic interests intersect. The Army’s involvement in securing China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a prime example. The Army’s role in providing a secure environment for such critical projects has been instrumental in maintaining investor confidence. Moreover, Army chief has played a pivotal role in fostering regional stability, which is essential for economic growth. By engaging in diplomatic efforts and maintaining internal security, Army has helped create a more conducive environment for economic activities. This stability has been a key factor in Moody’s positive reassessment of Pakistan’s economic prospects.
While the Army’s role in securing the nation is vital, the incumbent government’s economic reforms have been equally crucial in driving Pakistan’s economic turnaround. The government has implemented a series of bold and necessary reforms to address structural issues that have plagued the economy for decades. One of the most significant reforms has been in the area of fiscal policy. The government has worked tirelessly to reduce the budget deficit, which has historically been a major source of economic instability. By implementing strict austerity measures, cutting unnecessary expenditures, and improving tax collection, the government has managed to bring the deficit under control. This has not only stabilized the economy but also improved Pakistan’s creditworthiness in the eyes of international investors.
Additionally, the government’s efforts to improve the ease of doing business have started to bear fruit. By streamlining regulations, reducing bureaucratic red tape, and improving infrastructure, the government has made Pakistan a more attractive destination for foreign investment. This has led to an increase in foreign direct investment (FDI), which is essential for sustained economic growth. Another critical area of reform has been the energy sector. Pakistan has long struggled with energy shortages, which have hampered industrial growth and contributed to economic stagnation. The government’s focus on diversifying energy sources, improving efficiency, and reducing circular debt has been a game-changer. With more reliable and affordable energy, industries can operate more efficiently, contributing to overall economic growth.
Moody’s decision to upgrade Pakistan’s economic rating is a clear reflection of the effective leadership provided by both the Army chief and the incumbent government. Their coordinated efforts in addressing the nation’s security and economic challenges have created a more stable and prosperous environment. This rating upgrade is not just a numerical change; it represents a new chapter in Pakistan’s economic journey. It signals to the world that Pakistan is on the right track, with a leadership that is capable of making tough decisions and implementing necessary reforms. The improved rating will likely lead to increased investor confidence, lower borrowing costs, and greater access to international financial markets.
While the upgrade is a significant achievement, it is important to recognize that challenges remain. The global economic environment is uncertain, with potential risks from geopolitical tensions, fluctuating commodity prices, and the ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Domestically, Pakistan still faces issues such as inflation, poverty, and inequality, which require continued attention and action. To sustain the momentum, the leadership must remain committed to the path of reform. The government must continue to implement policies that promote economic growth, social inclusion, and environmental sustainability. At the same time, the Army’s role in ensuring security and stability will remain crucial in maintaining a positive economic trajectory.
The recent increase in Pakistan’s economic rating by Moody’s is a testament to the exceptional leadership of the Pakistani Army chief and the incumbent government. Their combined efforts have not only stabilized the economy but also set the stage for future growth and prosperity. While challenges remain, the foundations for a stronger and more resilient economy have been laid. As Pakistan moves forward, it is imperative that this leadership continues to guide the nation with the same resolve and vision. With the right policies and continued commitment, Pakistan can build on this success and achieve its full economic potential, creating a brighter future for its people.
Pak BMD program: US’ unqualified, undeserved concern
By: Syed Qamar Afzal Rizvi | September 26, 2024
Last week, the US State Department spokesperson Mathew Miller said, “We have been clear and consistent about our concerns with Pakistan’s Ballistic Missile Program for many years, adding the US will continue to use sanctions and other tools against long-term partner, Pakistan’s Ballistic Missile Program’’. While the US shares concern regarding Pakistan’s BMD Program; it ponders no opposition to Indian BMD system, thus, showing its double standard on Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities. As India’s military capabilities have progressed, and advanced, Pakistan is justified to consider modifying its nuclear and missile systems to maintain its strategic deterrence.
Needless to say, the US Government has been generally supportive of India’s efforts to bolster its defence capabilities, particularly Indian missile system. The United States has shown support for India’s Military-Industrial Development (MBD) Program through collaborations and agreements aimed at enhancing defence capabilities. Traditionally, the US sees Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile programme with a jaundiced eye and sanctions have been unjustifiably imposed on it by asserting that Washington has been consistently concerned about Pakistan’s ballistic missile development efforts and the potential for collaboration with China, viewing these as threats to regional stability.
As per the US State Department Statement : ‘’Specifically, the Department of State is designating the Beijing Research Institute of Automation for Machine Building Industry (RIAMB) pursuant to Executive Order 13382, which targets proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery. RIAMB has worked with Pakistan’s National Development Complex (NDC) –which the United States assesses is involved in the development and production of Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missiles – to procure equipment for testing of large diameter rocket motors, including the Shaheen-3 and Ababeel, but also potentially for larger systems’’.
These sanctions were aimed at firms that provided missile-related stuff to Pakistan, which helps boost Pakistan’s ballistic missile programme. Nonetheless, experts indicate that without providing evidence to substantiate the respective claims, US imposition of unilateral sanctions are not justifiable. The current announcement marks the sixth round of such sanctions to be levied by the US on Chinese and Pakistani companies since November 2021. Under these sanctions, the US-based assets of those named can be frozen, these companies are banned from doing business with any group or person named.
As for Pakistan’s official stance, Mumtaz Zehra Baloch spokesperson of Ministry of Foreign Affairs(MOFA) said, ‘’It is widely known that some countries, while claiming strict adherence to non-proliferation norms, have conveniently waived licensing requirements for advanced military technologies to their favoured states. The spokesperson further stated: “Such double standards and discriminatory practices undermine the credibility of global non-proliferation regimes, increase military asymmetries, and endanger international peace and security.”
In the same vein, Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for China’s embassy in Washington, said, “China firmly opposes unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction that have no basis in international law or authorisation of the UN Security Council.” Discernibly, US approach towards the application of nuclear law is selective, biased and unilateral. Clearly, the US is perceived to reflect double standards regarding the Pakistan Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system because it often critiques Pakistan’s nuclear program while being more lenient towards India’s similar capabilities. Furthermore, the US has imposed what Pakistan describes as “biased and politically-motivated” sanctions related to its missile program, contributing to these perceptions of hypocrisy.
And yet, India’s Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system has received significant cooperation from the US due to the strategic partnership that has developed between the two nations. Therefore, the Pakistani side argues that an overriding US support to India is the major cause of concern in South Asia. Despite these sanctions, imposed since November 2021, Pakistan’s missile program remains active and has continued to develop. To counter India’s perceived threats, Pakistan has also developed an indigenous AVM Program.
Nonetheless, Washington’s nuclear approach towards Islamabad profoundly reflects on “nuclear apartheid” in South Asia. This propensity is used to describe the perceived inequality in nuclear capabilities and policies among states, particularly in South Asia, where the US has shown a differential approach towards countries like India and Pakistan. This inequity can manifest in the US support of India’s nuclear capabilities while applying stricter controls and limitations on Pakistan, contributing to regional tensions and security dilemmas.
Needless to say, the post Agni-V South Asia poses new challenges to the strategic stability in the region which is glaringly marked by India’s MIRV capable Intercontinental Ballistic Missile(ICBM) test in March, 2024, has significantly advanced Indian missile technology characterizing Multiple Independently targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) capabilities. All the while, this argument holds considerable weight that India‘s BMD programme — that India can use the MIRV capabilities for counter space mission, thereby also targeting of satellites and its expansion of counter space weapons— intrinsically disturbs the strategic balance/equilibrium in South Asia.
In South Asia, Pakistan’s development of a Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system is aimed at deterring India’s BMD capability—essentially counterfeiting any potential attack from India. Pakistan perceives India’s speedily growing BMD Program a major threat to its nuclear deterrent. In order to counter India’s ballistic missile defence (BMD) system, so far, Pakistan has developed different variants of several long-range ballistic missile variants, including the Hatf VI (Shaheen II) and Shaheen 1A. Pakistan has also developed Shaheen-3 ranging 2750 km and MIRV-Ababeel ranging 2200 km. As for Pakistan, given the profound imperatives of its two-fold doctrine (full spectrum deterrence (FSD)-cum-strategic autonomy, Islamabad is obliged to pursue modifying its deterrence capabilities in accordance with the growing strategic needs.
Thus, Islamabad is determined to maintain its versatile BMD system capability vis-à-vis India’s. As a responsible nuclear state, Pakistan has been currently elected as member of the IAEA’s Board of Governors for the 21st time. While the Biden Administration is adhered to extend an enduring partnership between the US and Pakistan, Islamabad advocates for an equality-based strategic US approach in South Asia.
—The writer, an independent ‘IR’ researcher-cum-international law analyst based in Pakistan, is member of European Consortium for Political Research Standing Group on IR, Critical Peace & Conflict Studies, also a member of Washington Foreign Law Society and European Society of International Law. He deals with the strategic and nuclear issues.
Destructive Fallacies in Baluchistan
By: Sikandar Noorani | September 26, 2024
Surging terrorism in Balochistan needs to be analyzed in the correct context. Growing concerns about the evolving security challenges are not misplaced but a miscalculated response would be damaging on many accounts. In the past, comrades of different brands tried to lure in the Baluch youth towards ill-conceived revolutions. Since 1877, the British government managed Baluchistan as an agency of the crown through various influential tribal chiefs aka Sardars. British Raj generously opened the coffer to Sardars who in return were responsible for ensuring peace in respective areas.
This colonial governance arrangement is known as the ‘Sandeman System’ which strengthened the influence of Sardars in Baluchistan. 1947 partition which subsequently raised the question of Baluchistan’s accession with Pakistan; posed a potent threat to the Sardari system. Reluctance of Khan of Kalat to the accession was rejected from the outset by Kharan, Makran and Lasbella. Reluctant Khan of Kalat received another embarrassing blow when Nehru rejected the accession plea on 27 March 1948. Later on, Baluchistan took the natural course of accession with Pakistan. Certain Sardars were not happy with this arrangement amid the subsequent abolishment of their grip on society. The ethnic composition of Baluchistan is quite interesting as more than half of the populace does not speak the Baluch language. As per the 2017 census 35.49% population speaks Baluchi whereas the remaining 74. 51% population speaks Pushto, Brahui and other local dialects. Approximately 50% of the Baluch population lives in adjacent areas of Sind province and earns livelihood peacefully. While gauging the hype of separatism in the province we should remember that the Pushtun belt in the province is free of any such tendency. Those who create hype that Baluchistan is drifting away from Pakistan are usually carried away with either social media optics or acting purposefully on the agenda of spoilers. Certain relevant aspects should not be ignored while deliberating upon the issues of Balochistan. What is the reality of terrorist groups who frequently claim responsibility for attacks? Why do the terrorists always choose armed forces, LEAs, CPEC-related installations and Punjab-based labourers as targets? The intensity of social media campaigning revolving around the backwardness and marginalization of Baluchs often portrays deeper signs of separation in the province.
The triangle of foreign hostile powers, local Sardars and exploitative anarchists is the root cause of present unrest in Baluchistan.
Social media propaganda has played a big role in creating the optics of an unmanageable crisis in the province. It serves the purpose of those hostile powers which are inimical to the prosperity and stability of Baluchistan. Backwardness in far-flung areas of Balochistan is a genuine problem. However, it is not an exceptional phenomenon specific only to Balochistan. Many areas in Punjab, Sindh and KP provinces are also deprived of basic amenities of life awaiting the generosity of ruling quarters. Ironically, hostile elements are exploiting governance issues of a universal nature to ignite the fire of ethnic hatred among the deprived Baluchs. This tendency has emerged as an unwritten law that spoilers always pick existing issues to create a wedge between the state and the citizens.
After igniting the fire of discontent, these spoilers never seriously pursue the solution of issues on the ground. A just solution to the issues can extinguish the fire and repair the dented relations between the state and the citizens. This happened in East Pakistan almost five decades back with active Indian support including blatant military invasion! The same hostile powers are now trying to recreate the 71 tragedy in Baluchistan as well. Since geography is not suitable for the isolation of Baluchistan militarily, therefore, anarchists and their handlers are more focused on creating deeper destabilization. Successful completion of development projects is one such move which can dislodge the entire mechanism of anarchists. Unfortunately, the prevailing democratic system has not yet been able to liberate the Baluch society from the shackles of Sardars. Sandeman’s system still prevailed in the form of influential tribal sardars who never let the state resources trickle down to the common people. Opportunist Sardars are responsible for the backwardness and depravity in Baluchistan which is being exploited by the hostile foreign powers to mislead the youth against the state.
The triangle of foreign hostile powers, local Sardars and exploitative anarchists is the root cause of the present unrest in Baluchistan. It would be unwise to delink this situation with prevailing geopolitical and global contestation. Beijing’s factor in ongoing development projects predominantly CPEC has brought global powers into the intricate game. We know about the deep alignment of India with those Western powers who are striving hard to contain China. No rocket science is required to decipher the warmth extended to India-backed Baluch anarchists in the West. Fabricated human rights hype, terrorism, targeted killings of non-Baluch citizens, manipulative protests cum sit-ins and attacks on strategic installations are precisely designed to portray Baluchistan as a trouble zone. Anarchists can not offer anything concrete other than misleading the Baluch youth with hollow slogans on the path of violence, ethnic hatred and terrorism. It is about time for Baluchs to get rid of foreign puppets and link with the state for a stable prosperous future.
Balochistan - the antidote
By: Inam Ul Haque | September 26, 2024
The State finds no alternative to this entrenched elite, as in the distant, especially the militancy-affected areas, the State's inability to reach out leaves even routine and essential state functions dependent upon these traditional strongmen.
In this self-perpetuating exploitative cycle, education seems to have made some inroads, enabling the youth bulge to challenge the status quo. However, the local Sardar-militant-teacher combine channelises and diverts the youth angst against the State, protecting its own power, privilege and patronage. Election and democracy will not work as in the lackluster turnout, entrenched Sardars-cum-politicians are returned to the assemblies again and again, further enhancing their blackmailing powers.
With the problem stated, we explore some other facts. Baloch, in the Sulaiman Mountains, have some 27 tribes (tumans) under a tumandar - Sardar. They are mentioned in 10th Century Arabic chronicles, and their original homeland was probably the Iranian plateau. Arid Balochistan, at the eastern end of this plateau, is almost evenly split between Pakistan and Iran's Sistan-Balochistan province. It also occupies small parts of Afghanistan's Nimruz, Helmand and Kandahar provinces.
Sanjarani, Jamal-al-Dini, Badini, Mohammad-Hasani and the Brahui-speaking Mengal tribes live on either side of the Pak-Afghan border. Of the estimated 90,000 Baloch living in Afghanistan, around 10,000 (Narui-i, Rigi, Sanjarani and Gurgec tumans) have relations in both Iran and Pakistan. Most Afghan Baloch are presently refugees in Pakistan, besides around 300,000 mainly Pashtun Afghan refugees in Balochistan.
Hence, Islamabad must contend with the Iranian influences, Afghan connection, smuggling along respective borders and the coastal belt, and the more than friendly interests of the Indian, British and other intelligence agencies.
As per Census-2017, Balochistan's population is 12.34 million with only 3.41 million (27.62%) living in urban areas and an overwhelming 8.93 million (72.38%) living in rural areas. The male at 52.56% outnumber female at 47.43%. Out of its six administrative divisions (comprising 31 districts), Quetta has 33.81% of the population, Kalat 20.37%, Nasirabad 13.47%, Zhob 12.50%, Makran 12.04% and Sibi 7.81%. And a whopping 48.69% are under 15 years, another 18.20% between 15-24 years of age, making this youth bulge highly dependent.
The 35.49% Baloch population is divided into the Sulaimani and the Makrani groups, separated by a compact block of Brahui tribes (17.12%). North Balochistan including Quetta is entrenched Pashtun Belt (35.34%). Balochistan's literacy, at 43.58%, is way below the national average of 58.92%, and further low for women population (31.89%). Population density is 18.91 persons per sq-km (Nasirabad Division highest at 109.79; Kalat lowest at 17.97), much below the national average of 260.8 person per sq-km.
Administratively, like the rest of Pakistan, a Balochistan district gets divided into sub-divisions; subdivision into tehsil(s); tehsil into Qanungo Halqas, further divided into Patwar Circles (PCs); and PC into Mauzas (revenue estates) in settled areas. In the un-settled areas, tehsil is divided into UCs which is further divided into villages. Balochistan Police is responsible for law-and-order maintenance in urban areas only, called 'A Areas.' Rural areas, more than 80% of Balochistan, is 'B Area' policed by Balochistan Levies, whereas the Frontier Corps (FC) operates in both. For some years now, Army-led FC has been divided into a North-South Force.
The provincial economy stands on mining, subsistence agriculture, sheep farming, cotton/wool manufacturing, limited textile, fishing, food processing, carpet weaving, leather embroidery, handicrafts, etc. Nomadic Baloch tumans are settling down.
Academically, Baloch ethnicity is not clearly defined. Many communities identifying as Baloch are of alien origin and assimilated over four centuries. There is no evidence that all Baloch communities scattered in Iran, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan (non-Balochi-speaking) are in fact historically related, with common ancestry like Pashtuns.
Baloch traditions contain commendable traits like 'Bijjar' (cooperation) and 'Fafan-o-Kharch/Kharch-o-Kaffan' where relatives, friends and fellow tribesmen contribute to marriage and funeral expenses, respectively, in cash or kind. Under 'Maihrh', the party in conflict sends a mediator to the other party to establish peace. The mediator calls for truce on agreed terms, like the nanawatee tradition among Pashtuns. Like the Pashtun 'hamsaya' and 'melmestia' traditions, Baloch tumans practice 'Baahot' to provide shelter, protection and hospitality to anyone entering a Baloch home. Despite such humane tribalism, it is deplorable that Punjabi travellers in Baloch lands are brutally murdered by the so-called flag-bearers of Baloch pride and traditions.
Having explored relevant factors, we move on to the antidote. Synchronised efforts be made to contain youth discontent and its recruitment by militants, deflating militant narrative, addressing genuine grievances, and enabling youth to come out of the Sardari-Militant influences. State should 'initiate' narrative and not just 'respond' to militants' one.
Secondly, doling out money to Sardars, political engineering and patronage have not helped the sparsely populated Balochistan, especially the Central Balochistan under militancy. Therefore, it is recommended that State, especially in the affected areas, need to enhance its administrative and security footprint under full, continuous and unflinching support of all LEAs. Military/FC may consider pervasive brigade size encampments. Local acceptance would accrue overtime. Pano Aqil Cantt is an example.
Thirdly, nurturing indigenous leadership alternative will succeed once the recalcitrant Sardar is considerably weakened. This necessitates trying a different form of Administration under a 'mostly' non-local provincial bureaucracy with Federal oversight (political and Army/FC), controlling resource-allocation and utilisation till the time a good level of mainstreaming in the entire Baloch area, especially the central part, is achieved. Process can be phased.
Fourthly, certain drastic measures ought to be 'considered' like: a) populating the central Baloch areas with migration from other parts of Pakistan KP and Sindh initially (Afghan Emir Abdur Rehman/Kashmir model); b) division between Pashtun North and Baloch South, or any administratively practical contraption, in sync with sentiment for smaller provinces. And as a rule, the major federating unit should stop denigrating smaller units by looking down at them.
It is time to act, now and fast!
India’s concern over Sri Lanka’s elections lays bare a hegemonic mind-set
By: Global Times | September 26, 2024
Anura Kumara Dissanayake was sworn in as the new president of Sri Lanka on Monday after the National People's Power leader won the presidential election. This marks the first time in the country's history that a Marxist leader has assumed the role.
Some Indian and Western media outlets have been quick to nervously analyze Sri Lanka's possible attitude toward India. Media outlets like the Times of India and Deccan Herald have noted that the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), also led by Dissanayake, has an "anti-India record and pro-China leaning." To drive a wedge between China and Sri Lanka, the Indian Express even made an issue of Sri Lanka's debt problem, claiming "India has been a willing partner to Sri Lanka's debt restructuring, unlike China."
India's concerns and attempts to undermine China-Sri Lanka relations over so-called debt traps reflect a great power competition mind-set, exposing its regional hegemonic ambitions and worries about the decline of its influence in South Asia, Long Xingchun, a professor from the School of International Relations at Sichuan International Studies University, told the Global Times.
India has long viewed South Asia as its sphere of influence, insisting that countries in the region adhere to an "India first" policy. However, such a hegemonic mind-set does not align with the interests and development needs of South Asian countries such as Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan. What these nations most need is to strengthen themselves and improve their economies, and cooperation with China is undoubtedly a favorable choice.
Sri Lanka was one of the first countries to welcome and join the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Port City Colombo and the Hambantota Port, which are flagship projects under the BRI cooperation framework, have significantly promoted Sri Lanka's economic development and improved living standards, facilitating the country's modernization process. Clearly, a win-win approach is the direction in which people are inclined to move.
Normal, healthy and sound state-to-state relations can only be built on mutual respect, equality and mutual benefits. Just as Chinese President Xi Jinping said when congratulating Dissanayake on assuming the presidency of Sri Lanka on Monday, China and Sri Lanka have set a good example of friendly coexistence and mutually beneficial cooperation between countries of different sizes.
"Attempts to hinder South Asian countries from collaborating with others through smear tactics are unhealthy, impractical and unlikely to succeed," said Long.
Since the British Empire's withdrawal from South Asia after World War II, South Asian nations have developed into modern nation-states, with the concept of sovereign equality taking root. No country wishes to accept being in India's sphere of influence, nor do any political elites in neighboring countries willingly subordinate themselves to New Delhi. India's anxiety over Sri Lanka's election results, its various unfounded worries about Sri Lankan diplomacy, and its attempts to undermine China-Sri Lanka relations stem from its perception of itself as the sole regional hegemon, which burdens it excessively.
Recent years have witnessed the emergence of an "India Out" campaign among South Asian countries, which is a result of India's mistaken policies and mind-set of treating South Asia and the Indian Ocean as its sphere of influence.
Experts suggest that, as an independent sovereign state, maintaining its own interests is paramount for the Sri Lankan government, which is expected to continue a balanced diplomatic approach. As Dissanayake pointed out in an interview, "Sri Lanka won't be a competitor in that geopolitical fight, nor will we be aligned to any party. We don't want to be sandwiched, especially between China and India. Both countries are valued friends."
India's anxiety only reveals its petty mind-set. As a regional power, India should respect Sri Lanka's sovereignty and the foreign development choices it makes based on its own interests. It should refrain from its hegemonic impulse to exert pressure on or interfere in Sri Lanka's external cooperation.
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor benefits people of Balochistan
By: Zhang Hao | September 26, 2024
In June, the China-Pakistan Friendship Hospital (CPFH) in Gwadar, Balochistan, was officially handed over to the Pakistani side. As a significant livelihood project under the framework of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), this modern comprehensive hospital, with 150 beds, features an intensive care unit,a neonatal intensive care unit, and four fully equipped operating rooms. It serves over 900 patients daily and employs nearly 300 local people. Fahad Muhammad, the Pakistani project director of the hospital, stated that there was no second hospital in the entire province of Balochistan that met international standards like this one, which would benefit the people of Balochistan as a whole.
“To get rich, we must first build roads”. China’s over 40 years of reform and opening up have revealed that for a country or region to achieve sustained development and improve people’s lives, upgrading infrastructure is essential. The China-Pakistan Friendship Hospital in Gwadar is a clear example of how the construction of CPEC has boosted the improvement of infrastructure in Balochistan and benefited local people.
Since its launch in 2013, the CPEC has brought water and electricity, roads and airports, schools and hospitals to the people of Balochistan, leading to more employment opportunities, improved living conditions, and a promising future. Take Gwadar Port as an example, whose part, driven by the construction of CPEC, has developed into a multi-purpose terminal with three multi-purpose berths, capable of docking two 50,000-ton cargo ships at the same time. A regular container shipping service has also been launched. The China-assisted Gwadar East Bay Expressway was officially opened in June 2022, creating a transportation link between Gwadar Port and the southern key city of Karachi, enhancing connectivity between Gwadar Port and the economic heartland of Pakistan.
The new Gwadar International Airport completed its test flights in June, and when completed, it will form a modern three-dimensional transport network by sea, land and air together with the maritime route of Gwadar Port and the East Bay Expressway. The construction of the new port, road, and airport has transformed the Gwadar region from a remote fishing village into an important regional logistics hub and industrial base. The number of local shops, communication base stations, cold storage facilities, and restaurants has doubled in recent years, and the number of tourists has also doubled, leading to a significant increase in local people’s income, and as the saying goes, “a rising tide lifts all boats”. This demonstrates that the traction effect of infrastructure development on improving people’s livelihoods will be substantial and continuous to be released.
In promoting the construction of the CPEC, China focuses on large-scale infrastructure projects that support the long-term development of Balochistan while also carrying out numerous “small yet smart” livelihood assistance projects:
We are committed to providing timely assistance. During the pandemic, the Chinese government provided essential supplies such as rice, flour, and cooking oil to fishermen in Gwadar, effectively alleviating their difficulties. After the floods in 2022, the Chinese Embassy in Pakistan promptly distributed relief supplies to 3,000 affected households in the Bugti tribal area, helping them to get through the difficult times. When Balochistan was hit by floods again this year, the Chinese government quickly provided $100,000 in emergency cash assistance and 10,000 pieces of solar-powered lighting equipment, endeavouring to alleviate difficulties.
We care about the development of women and children. The Chinese government’s project to donate 20,000 women’s health kits to Balochistan was launched in July, aiming to improve the quality of life and health awareness of local women. The Chinese-aided Gwadar Faqeer School was expanded from a primary school to a primary and middle school with modern teaching facilities, including multi-purpose classrooms, and the original enrolment of 150 students has increased to more than 1,000, and is known as “the school that grows up” by the local people. The Pak-China Technical and Vocational Institute at Gwadar focuses on short-term professional training for local workers, with 366 trainees already graduated and 145 currently enrolled. Students from Gwadar can attend for free and have the opportunity to study in China in the future.
We provide assistance tailored to local conditions. The Chinese government organized enterprises to donate high-yield hybrid rice seeds to farmers affected by disasters in Balochistan, allowing them to enjoy the joy of a bountiful harvest with “Chinese seeds”. The Central South University of Forestry and Technology in China has cultivated plants such as date palms, figs, and Sesbania in Balochistan, not only increasing local vegetation coverage but also providing food sources or animal feed, effectively boosting local people’s economic income. The Chinese Consulate General in Karachi implemented the “Lighting up Gwadar” project, installing 73 solar street lights to illuminate roads used by Gwadar fishermen at night.
“Of all the things that matter, people’s livelihood comes first”. In the new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics, the most important value orientation of the Chinese government’s governance is to further safeguard, improve, and develop people’s livelihood, striving to realize the people’s aspirations for a better life. The second phase of the CPEC will continue to uphold this development concept, making greater contributions to the economic development and livelihood improvement of Balochistan, benefiting more local people, and fully demonstrating the universally beneficial and inclusive nature of China-Pakistan friendly cooperation.
The construction of the CPEC is inseparable from the efforts of numerous Chinese enterprises. While promoting industrial development and providing a large number of employment opportunities in Balochistan, they have also taken on the role of fulfilling their Corporate Social Responsibility with heart and soul, and have sincerely solved practical difficulties for the people of of Balochistan through various means such as building roads, bridges, wells, hospitals, schools, and donating materials.
The Hub Coal Power Project not only created nearly 10,000 jobs in Balochistan during its construction but also continued to carry out desert tree planting and coastal cleaning activities for many years, and helped build a fishing pier and a public welfare school. The Saindak Copper Gold Project built the only high school in the area, Saindak High School, providing free education to more than 600 students, and its project hospital serves over 4,000 villagers. Since its operation, the Duddar Lead-zinc Mine Project has newly built and renovated six surrounding primary and secondary school buildings and regularly assisted about 300 students in surrounding community schools with study and living supplies.
The project has also funded the continuous maintenance of roads and bridges within 100 km from Duddar to Winder and constructed a causeway, completely solving the problem of poor transportation during the rainy season in the Kanraj area, effectively ensuring that the transportation lifeline in surrounding communities stays smooth.
“Of all the things that matter, people’s livelihood comes first”. In the new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics, the most important value orientation of the Chinese government’s governance is to further safeguard, improve, and develop people’s livelihood, striving to realize the people’s aspirations for a better life. The second phase of the CPEC will continue to uphold this development concept, making greater contributions to the economic development and livelihood improvement of Balochistan, benefiting more local people, and fully demonstrating the universally beneficial and inclusive nature of China-Pakistan friendly cooperation.
Israel, the Middle East, and Pakistan
By: Haroon Khawaja | September 26, 2024
As the war in Gaza nears its one-year mark, Israel’s goal of decimating Hamas remains elusive. Despite its military preparedness and technological superiority, bolstered by support from the United States and Europe, Israel has been unable to achieve the total victory envisioned by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Efforts by the U.S., Egypt, Qatar, and other nations to broker a ceasefire in exchange for Israeli hostages have stalled, with little progress beyond statements from world leaders. Politics appears to have overshadowed this already complex issue, which involves occupation, the fight for freedom, terrorism, religion, personal agendas, and more. The following is an attempt to untangle this web by examining the competing viewpoints of the various parties involved and what may lie ahead in this ongoing human tragedy.
From Israel’s perspective, it has successfully destroyed or seized critical supply routes from Egypt to Gaza, including the key Philadelphi Corridor, a 300-foot-wide, eight-mile-long strip from Israel’s border to the Mediterranean. This corridor, which connects Gaza to the northeast and Egypt to the southwest, was a vital supply route for weapons and food transportation to Hamas. Israel claims to have killed or captured approximately 14,000 combatants in Gaza and eliminated half the leadership of the Qassam Brigades, Hamas’s military wing, including figures like Muhammad Deif and Marwan Issa. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) assert they can now move freely throughout Gaza, claiming that Hamas is so weakened that it has reportedly informed international negotiators of its willingness to relinquish civilian control of Gaza after a ceasefire.
However, Israel believes that if it withdraws from Gaza now, Hamas could regroup and regain strength within a year. Israeli military officials estimate that another two to three months of intense fighting in central and southern Gaza will be necessary before transitioning to intelligence-based raids and strikes over the next year. This strategy aims to eliminate remaining Hamas fighters and dismantle their weapons infrastructure before allowing another party to assume administrative control of Gaza. The U.S. assessment suggests that Hamas is no longer capable of orchestrating attacks on the scale of those seen on October 7, and its ability to launch smaller terrorist strikes is in question. However, American officials caution that Hamas may reconstitute itself after Israeli forces leave an area, particularly if there is no clear follow-up plan for governance and security.
Israel understands that the return of approximately 115 hostages, whether alive or dead, can only be secured through negotiations.
Hamas, from the outset, has pursued a strategy of “survival as victory.” It has instructed its fighters to hide within its extensive tunnel network beneath Gaza or among the civilian population. While Israel has tried to target these tunnels, the underground network has proved more extensive than anticipated, allowing Hamas leaders and fighters to evade capture. Hamas claims that Israeli forces are exhausted and eager for an end to the conflict, and believes that continued fighting will lead to more civilian casualties, increasing global opposition to Israel while generating support for the Palestinian cause.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has formed security and economic coalitions to contain Russia in Europe, China in the Pacific, and to isolate Iran in the Middle East. These coalitions extend from Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines in Asia-Pacific to India in the Persian Gulf and NATO in Europe. A proposed defense alliance with Saudi Arabia is key to linking these alliances. However, for the U.S. Congress to approve a defense pact with Saudi Arabia, the olive branch would be the normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. In return, Saudi Arabia would require a ceasefire in Gaza and a commitment to a two-state solution leading to a Palestinian state in the future. A ceasefire deal with Hamas, coupled with the release of Israeli hostages, could also compel Hezbollah to cease hostilities. At that point, Israel could begin negotiations with the Palestinian Authority, paving the way for normalised relations with Saudi Arabia—a significant diplomatic victory for both the U.S. and Israel. This would potentially open the door for Egypt, the UAE, and Morocco to send peacekeeping forces to Gaza, with the Palestinian Authority representing the Palestinian people rather than Hamas. Such a coalition could counter Iran’s alliances with Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias.
However, this diplomatic scenario faces hurdles. Prime Minister Netanyahu, indicted in 2019 on charges of fraud, bribery, and breach of trust, is motivated to stay in power to avoid prison if convicted. His government relies on a fragile coalition with far-right Jewish supremacists who oppose a two-state solution and threaten to topple his government if he agrees to a ceasefire or a deal with Saudi Arabia. Netanyahu has historically undermined the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, criticising its incompetence and corruption, even though it recognised Israel and signed the Oslo Accords. He has allowed Hamas to strengthen in Gaza as a means to keep the Palestinian people divided, even permitting Qatar to send $1 billion to Hamas for humanitarian aid and salaries.
Netanyahu is aware that the younger Democratic base in the U.S. is increasingly critical of Israel’s actions in Gaza. Thus, a Democratic victory in the upcoming U.S. elections would not align with his interests. If Netanyahu refuses to agree to a ceasefire and a hostage deal, this would place U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris in a difficult position, forcing her either to criticise Netanyahu and risk losing Jewish support, or to remain silent and lose Arab backing—both of which could harm her in the eyes of American voters. On the other hand, former President Donald Trump supports Netanyahu’s hardline approach in Gaza. A Trump victory in the 2024 U.S. elections would align with Netanyahu’s goals. If Trump wins, Netanyahu could announce a ceasefire, the return of hostages, and a Saudi deal, declaring it a victory for Israel, which could secure his re-election without needing the support of right-wing coalition partners.
In a broader context, Netanyahu sees an alliance with Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern nations as a diplomatic milestone, creating an Israeli-Arab partnership against Iran’s regional influence. However, this alliance would be incomplete without Pakistan, which holds one of the world’s most powerful militaries and is the only nuclear-armed Islamic country. Pakistan’s ailing economy, dependent on financial support from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Western lenders, might pressure it into joining the coalition, provided there is a path to Palestinian statehood and relief from its mounting foreign debt. But Pakistan faces a difficult choice, as its population has long viewed Israel as an occupying force. The possibility of Pakistan recognising Israel—something unthinkable for nearly eight decades—would be a monumental shift. The question remains whether Pakistan will join the Israel-Saudi alliance, and if Israel will deem the Saudi deal complete without Pakistan’s involvement.
The solution to the war in Gaza and the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict is far more complex than the immediate dynamics between Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank. The multitude of competing interests, extending far beyond the Middle East, must align before there is any hope of lasting peace in the region and the world.
Nation of Potential and Paradox
By: Dr. Jamal Shah | September 26, 2024
Pakistan, a developing country, is burdened with a significant amount of internal and external debt; however, this is only one side of the coin. The other side reveals a nation rich in natural and human resources, bursting with potential to drive the country towards prosperity. Yet, despite these promising resources, Pakistan’s economic narrative is tarnished by mismanagement, personal interests, and a profound lack of commitment to the nation’s growth. This paradox leaves the country staggering on the edge of both promise and peril.
To understand the depth of Pakistan’s economic challenges, one must first examine the fundamental pillars of its economy. Historically, Pakistan has been an agrarian economy, with agriculture serving as the backbone of its GDP. However, the contribution of agriculture to GDP has sharply declined, from 42% in 1967 to just 22% in 2022. While such a shift might be seen as a natural progression towards industrialization, Pakistan’s industrial sector has failed to meet expectations. The sector’s share of GDP has remained relatively stagnant, rising from 11.3% in 1960 to only 11.9% in 2022. This slow growth has not been sufficient to offset the decline in agriculture, leaving the economy unbalanced and overly dependent on the services sector, which now accounts for 52% of GDP.
Exports represent a crucial component of a robust economy. Unfortunately, Pakistan’s export performance is abysmal. In 1962, exports accounted for a mere 7.1% of the total GDP, a figure that rose to 9.0% in 2022. Although there were fluctuations during this period, the long-term trend has remained nearly constant. This stagnation, coupled with an increase in imports from 13% in 1962 to 18% in 2021, has left Pakistan grappling with a persistent current account deficit. A positive current account balance (CAB) is a hallmark of a healthy economy. However, since 1970, Pakistan’s CAB has been positive for only four years—specifically in 1983, 2001, 2002, and 2003, highlighting a chronic imbalance that threatens economic stability.
The roots of Pakistan’s economic troubles run deep, extending into critical sectors like education and healthcare. Education, a cornerstone of human capital, is essential for enhancing worker productivity and fostering economic growth. However, Pakistan’s investment in education remains alarmingly inadequate, with just 2.4% of GDP allocated in 2020. This figure is significantly lower than that of neighboring developing countries such as Bhutan, India, and China, which allocated 7.0%, 4.5%, and 3.6%, respectively. In addition, Malaysia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE allocated roughly 16%, 13%, 9%, 8.6%, 12.4%, 19%, and 12.6% of their respective GDPs to education. Similarly, in terms of healthcare expenditure, Pakistan lags behind its counterparts. In 2020, Pakistan’s healthcare expenditure accounted for only 3.3% of GDP, which is relatively low compared to other emerging economies.
Equally concerning is Pakistan’s underinvestment in research and development (R&D), a key driver of innovation and economic progress. In 2020, the country allocated just 0.20% of its GDP to R&D. In comparison, India’s expenditure on R&D amounted to 0.66%, China’s to 2.4%, Malaysia’s to 1.4%, Japan’s to 3.26%, and the UAE’s to 1.4%. Meanwhile, Israel and South Korea allocated 5.4% and 4.8% of their total GDP to R&D, respectively, placing them at the top of the list.
Amid these challenges, Pakistan’s tourism industry holds significant potential to boost the country’s GDP. The nation is home to a wealth of cultural, historical, and natural attractions, from the ancient ruins of Mohenjo-Daro to the breathtaking landscapes of the Northern Areas, which have been recognized by prominent travel guidebooks and magazines such as Lonely Planet, Condé Nast Traveller, and Forbes. In 2021, travel and tourism contributed USD 18 billion to the economy, yet this represented only 2.7% of GDP—far below its potential. In comparison, nations like Spain (15%), Malta (15%), Italy (9.1%), China (11%), India (6.1%), Thailand (8.5%), Malaysia (6.5%), Nepal (6.1%), and Bangladesh (4%) derive a much larger share of their GDP from tourism, underscoring the untapped potential that Pakistan could leverage with the right investments in infrastructure, marketing, and security.
However, while sectors like tourism show promise, others, such as military expenditure, raise questions about national priorities. In 2021, Pakistan allocated a substantial 3.82% of its GDP to military spending, a figure that overshadowed investments in education, healthcare, and R&D. This disproportionate spending, much of which remains unaccounted for due to purported national security concerns, underscores a misalignment in resource allocation that hampers broader economic development. The path forward for Pakistan involves not only acknowledging these challenges but also harnessing its latent potential. The cotton industry, for instance, plays a critical role in the economy yet faces numerous hurdles, ranging from pest infestations to energy shortages. Addressing these issues through targeted investments in technology, infrastructure, and farmer incentives could significantly boost productivity and exports, potentially generating more than $10 billion annually.
Similarly, the tourism sector offers a vast opportunity to diversify the economy and create jobs. By investing in high-quality hotels, reliable transportation, and effective international marketing, Pakistan could transform its tourism industry into a major economic driver, capable of contributing between $15 billion and $20 billion annually.
Pakistan’s economic narrative is one of contrasts—a nation rich in resources yet hampered by mismanagement, a country with immense potential yet weighed down by outdated priorities. To unlock its full potential, Pakistan must recalibrate its focus, investing in human capital, innovation, and industries that promise sustainable growth. Only then can the country move from the brink of economic peril to the threshold of prosperity.
Climate finance ecosystem
By: Ali Tauqeer Sheikh | September 26, 2024
In a frantic reaction to Pakistan’s desperate fiscal situation, the entire attention of key ministries and departments has moved to access international climate finance. The hope is that, if successful, this can ease the financial squeeze. This newfound priority has debased the national debate that ensued after the 2022 floods, from prioritising community resilience and low carbon development to accessing finances from some under-accessed sources.
The shaking of the apple tree has not stemmed from specific provincial or sectoral estimates of financial needs. Instead, it has sprung from the urgency to plug the financial gaps that are forcing Pakistan to annually restructure its debt. It is clear that the urgency to access climate finance is driven by the present narrow fiscal space, and not the importance to invest in resilient, bottom-up demand. The sincerity of motivation has emerged as a barrier, adding to the long list of chronic obstacles.
This is in spite of the fact that during the last 50 years, Pakistan has developed an elaborate institutional and policy architecture dealing with environment and climate change. The process started with the Pakistan Environment Protection Ordinance in 1983, followed by the approval of the National Conservation Strategy (1992), Environmental Protection Act (1997), National Environment Policy (2005), and a wave of climate policy documents since the 18th Constitutional Amendment of 2010.
The inability to stock-take has impeded the development of the climate finance ecosystem.
None of these policies defined the decision-making tree for policy coordination, resource allocations, or timelines needed for implementation of specific policy initiatives, let alone identifying the structural barriers to their implementation.
While presenting impressive plans, they fell short of identifying key constitutional, legal, or institutional constraints to their environment and climate actions. None of the websites of national and provincial climate-related outfits carry any study on why our policies have failed the implementation test. This inability to stock-take has impeded the development of the climate finance ecosystem.
Specific questions begging clarity on mandates, respective roles and responsibilities between the provinces and the federal government, and between the climate and other sectoral ministries, particularly the planning ministry, remain unaddressed. The planning ministry holds the key to engaging with provincial planning boards in order to embed climate considerations in the public sector development portfolio and provincial annual development plans. Lopsided development has not allowed the climate finance ecosystem to take root.
The ecosystem in our context is a web of intricate interactions reflected by hard and dotted lines, indicating the complexity and richness of the functioning of its parts. The dynamic nature and interdependence of their interactions, as in natural systems, reflects both its fragility and resilience. The backward and forward loops, as in systems theory, will be indicative of its health and ability to protect itself from predators. In the climate change realm, the predators include domestic and international interest groups, and undue outside influences and interferences retarding its functioning.
Therefore, the ecosystem in our context does not only refer to cataloguing the existence of institutions, their mandates, rules, regulations and procedures, or the existence of their policy or strategy documents. Instead, it also encompasses their formal and informal relationships and linkages with each other and their respective constituencies and stakeholders, to protect the interests and well-being of everyone affected by climatic changes as users, consumers, or taxpayers.
How well has this ecosystem evolved in the last 50 years and how well is it working? The response to the following five factors shapes the size and influences the scale of the flow of international finance for climate action:
Institutional and policy landscape: Has the climate ecosystem resolved the key governance and regulatory issues? Or does the tendency persist to evade questions that deal with clearly defining the roles and responsibilities of all national and provincial actors? Introducing a legislative package that mandates climate action across the sectors and tiers of governance can clear the obstructed path to action, instead of adding yet another tier of institutions.
Sectoral integration and action plans: Does the ecosystem include sector-specific action plans for concrete climate measures?
The absence of sectoral action plans that do not include adaptation strategies to build resilience, mitigation measures to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, or protect communities from loss and damage from rapid-onset and slow-onset will impede alignment with the country’s national targets and international obligations. Such plans can help identify opportunities for green growth and low-carbon development within each sector.
Subnational implementation: Does the ecosystem commit to deliver resources at local levels by recognising that climate impacts are always localised?
This would entail setting up local governments and allowing them to function. They can develop and implement their own, locally led action plans to create resilience, build local capacities, and diversify livelihood opportunities. Nothing is more important for climate justice than inclusion and equity for a well-functioning ecosystem.
Stakeholder engagement and partnerships: Has the ecosystem engaged dynamic organisations, academia, small and medium enterprises, women and youth? Has the partnership with the private sector been designed to strengthen local markets and nationally generate revenues and finances? It is imperative to leverage private sector investment in low-carbon or disruptive technologies for climate-resilient infrastructure.
Climate finance mechanisms: Does the ecosystem include instruments for channelling domestic and international climate finance?
 of the Shanghai Cooperation organization (SCO). Shanghai Cooperation Organization is an intergovernmental organization for cooperation. Its members in-clude Pakistan, China, Russia, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uz-bekistan and Belarus. Besides, three countries have Observers status and another fourteen enjoy Dialogue Partner status.
SCO has a broad agenda encompassing cooperation in trade, economy, tech-nology, culture, energy, communications and environment. It seeks to make joint en-deavours for peace and stability in the region to create a just and rational political and economic international order.
SCO offers Pakistan an opportunity to realize the economic dividends of its geographical position. Pakistan is located at the crossroads of three important regions: Central Asia, South Asia and West Asia. Its direct border with China and CPEC mas-sively add to its economic potential. This location is at the confluence of an ancient silk road. Pakistan’s position on the map is a great economic asset that it must make full use of. Largely because of the situation in Afghanistan, this has so far remained a liability more than an asset.
That comes on the top of strong historical and cultural bonds that Pakistan has with these regions. Strength of these cultural and historical links simply cannot be overstated. Region that constitutes Pakistan today has been a melting pot of South, Central and West Asian cultures for more than a thousand years. Mughals came from Central Asia with their strong contribution to the Urdu language. Well over a thou-sand years ago Shah Rukn-i-Aalam and Bahauddin Zakria came from Uzbekistan. Shams Sabzwari had come from Iran. Mahiwal of famous love story Sohni Mahiwal was from Uzbekistan. For Pakistan, strengthening its communications, trade and other economic links with SCO members is important. Pakistan hosted an SCO Trade and Economy Minis-ters’ meeting earlier this month. This meeting approved Pakistan’s proposal to strengthen and facilitate cooperation between the Trade Promotion Organization of the member countries. ‘If’ made use of, that can help Pakistan diversify its trading part-ners and export commodities.
SCO says it underpins the principles of “Shanghai Spirit”. The Declaration that established SCO in 2001 said Shanghai Spirit embodies mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality, joint consultations, respect for cultural diversity and aspiration for collective development. It was developed and felt during handling difficult border and security issues in the post Cold War period in late 1990s.
Today, we are living in a world marked by discontent. 35 years after the Cold War have seen much more of war than 45 years of cold war. And that continues un-abated. As we speak, world is seeing genocide in Gaza and war Ukraine. Pain of genocide in Gaza is being felt and protested against by the publics across the globe. Signs of immediate end to either of the two is nowhere in sight. Trust in the rule-based international system or the United Nations ability to deliver peace, security and justice is at its lowest ebb.
On the economic front, Developing countries have for long felt betrayed and deprived of their due rights; on trade rules, on monetary discipline and on social is-sues.WTO system is weakening by the day with protectionism showing a robust comeback. Not that the WTO system was just and fair, but fear is that its collapse would be worse than its existence; a law of the jungle. On the environment, nations that polluted the environment for centuries are unwilling to shoulder their full respon-sibilities. In this air of discontent, hearing about Shanghai spirit comes like music to the ears. But hold on, words in diplomatic statements are always good and pleasing. Real challenge is in their implementation, especially when it comes to reconciling differ-ences between nations with diverse ethos and policies. How does that translate into the SCO context.
India has an irresistible itch to mess with all its neighbors. Two of its neighbors Pakistan and China sit next to it on SCO Conference tables and co-author joint state-ments and documents with it. One such document is ‘Comprehensive Action Plan (2023-2027) for Implementation of Long-Term Good Neighborliness, Friendship, and Coop¬eration among the SCO Members.
India’s opposition to CPEC runs diametrically opposed to Shanghai spirit. In SCO too, India has brought in a bilateral agenda. Poor diplomatic behavior, void of accepted norms, displayed by India during Pakistan Foreign Minister’s visit to India to attend SCO Meeting in 2023 was a clear statement of India putting bilateral disputes above multilateralism. Recall the Charter of the SCO calls for “equality and mutual benefit, resolution of all issues through mutual consultations, non-interference in in-ternal affairs, non-use or threat of use of military force, and renunciation of unilat-eral military superiority in neighboring areas”.
India has a long history of putting regionalism subservient to bilateral issues. SAARC lost its steam because of repeated brakes applied by India on bilateral issues. India’s decision to participate or not in the upcoming SCO meeting in Islamabad will be important in assessing its respect for multilateralism, regional approach and Shanghai spirit.
Finally, for quite a while Pakistan has not hosted a major international event. Successful hosting a meeting of Heads of Government will provide us an opportunity for diplomatic showcasing and sending a message of our commitment to Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Shanghai spirit. To what extent, Shanghai spirit trans-lates into reality remains to be seen. But certainly it requires a sincere effort on the part of all stakeholders.
Humanity’s next revolution
By: Atta-ur-Rahman | September 25, 2024
Artificial intelligence relates to software developments. Another fantastic advance that is occurring simultaneously in the field of computer hardware is that of quantum computing. When these two frontiers merge, humanity will experience a fourth revolution. The steam engine revolutionized transportation and manufacturing, laying the groundwork for the industrial age.
The Second Industrial Revolution was defined by remarkable innovations like electricity and the internal combustion engine, reshaping the industrial and urban landscape. The expansion of rail and telegraph networks connected vast distances, revolutionizing communication and bringing about a new era of global connectivity.
The Third Industrial Revolution brought in the digital age, triggered by the development of semiconductors. It led to te development of personal computers and mobile phones, transforming communication, entertainment, and work. We are now experiencing the Fourth Industrial Revolution through the advent of artificial intelligence that is enhancing human capabilities and transforming industries, healthcare, and various other aspects of daily life. This will merge with quantum computers to create a brave new world that will be stranger than our wildest imaginations.
Quantum computing is one of the most exciting and revolutionary developments in science and technology today. It promises to solve certain problems billions of times faster than classical computers can. To understand quantum computing, let's first look at classical computers – the computers we use every day.
Classical computers process information in binary, using bits that represent either a 0 or a 1. These bits are the basic units of information, and everything your computer does boils down to manipulating these bits through logic.
Quantum computing is different. It’s based on the principles of quantum mechanics, which is a branch of physics that studies the smallest particles in the universe, like atoms and electrons. Quantum computers use qubits (quantum bits) instead of classical bits. The key difference is that qubits can exist in multiple states at once, thanks to some unique quantum properties. These qubits can be both 0 and 1 at the same time due to a property called superposition. Imagine spinning a coin. This property allows quantum computers to process a vast amount of information simultaneously.
Therefore, the beauty of superposition is that a quantum computer can explore many solutions to a problem at once, whereas a classical computer would have to try each solution one after the other. Since qubits can exist in a superposition of multiple states, they are, in a sense, exploring many possible outcomes at once. This has led some scientists and theorists to suggest that quantum computers may be taking advantage of parallel universes (‘multiverse’) to perform calculations.
Now let us compare classical and quantum computing with a simple analogy. Imagine you’re trying to solve a maze. A classical computer would try every possible path through the maze one at a time. If it hits a dead end, it turns around and tries a different route. Eventually, it will find the right path, but it might take a long time. Now, imagine a quantum computer. Thanks to superposition, it can try multiple paths simultaneously. Instead of going down one path at a time, the quantum computer explores many different paths at once. It can also amplify the correct paths and ignore the dead ends. In this way, a quantum computer could find the correct path through the maze billions of times faster than a classical computer.
The field has many potential applications. Today’s online security systems, such as those that protect your credit card information, rely on complex math problems that are very difficult for classical computers to solve. These systems are based on the difficulty of factoring large numbers. However, quantum computers could solve these problems extremely quickly, making today’s encryption methods obsolete. In the field of drug development too, quantum computing combined with artificial intelligence can bring in revolutionary changes.
Molecules and chemical reactions are governed by quantum mechanics. Classical computers struggle to simulate complex molecules because the number of variables involved grows exponentially as the molecules get bigger. Quantum computers, on the other hand, are naturally suited to simulating molecular interactions. This could revolutionize drug discovery by allowing scientists to model new drugs much more accurately, potentially leading to cures for diseases like cancer or Alzheimer’s.
Quantum computers could also improve machine learning algorithms, making AI more powerful and efficient in fields like speech recognition, medical diagnosis, and autonomous vehicles.
Many industries, from logistics to finance, deal with optimization problems – figuring out the best way to do something when there are a huge number of variables involved. For example, finding the most efficient route for delivery trucks, optimizing supply chains, or managing financial portfolios all involve optimization.
Quantum computers could solve these problems much faster than classical computers, which would save time and resources across various industries. From understanding the origin of the universe to predicting the behaviour of the stock exchange or finding cures for various diseases, quantum computing combined with artificial intelligence is poised to change the very fabric of human civilization.
Although quantum computing holds immense promise, building a practical quantum computer is extremely challenging. One of the biggest challenges is maintaining the stability of qubits. Qubits are extremely sensitive to their environment, and small disturbances, like a change in temperature or electromagnetic noise, can cause them to lose their quantum state – a phenomenon called decoherence.
Another challenge is that quantum computers are prone to errors because qubits are so delicate. These errors can accumulate and affect the final result of a calculation. Developing ways to correct these errors without disrupting the quantum computation is a major area of research.
Scaling up the number of qbits while keeping them stable is another major challenge. Quantum computers need to operate at extremely low temperatures, near absolute zero (-273 C), to prevent decoherence. Maintaining such cold environments is technologically complex and expensive, making quantum computers difficult to build and maintain.
While there are still many technical challenges to overcome, the field is advancing rapidly, and companies, universities, and governments around the world are investing in quantum research. In the coming decades, we will see quantum computers solving real-world problems that classical computers can’t handle, leading to breakthroughs in fields ranging from medicine to finance to artificial intelligence.
Pakistan must prepare itself for this Fourth Industrial Revolution where artificial intelligence combined with quantum computing is on the verge of changing life on this planet forever.
Escaping a Terrorism Crisis
By: Dr Tehmina Aslam Ranjha | September 25, 2024
On September 22, Pakistan was lucky to have escaped a major terrorism crisis, when the police van escorting the convoy of foreign diplomats bore the brunt of a bomb blast on Malam Jabba Road in Swat, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK). The van transporting diplomats from eleven countries escaped unhurt.
Reportedly, foreign dignitaries from Indonesia, Portugal, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Zimbabwe, Rwanda, Vietnam, Iran, Russia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina comprised the cavalcade. The diplomats were visiting the area to attend the Swat Tourism Summit at the request of the organizer, the Islamabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Hitherto, no terrorist group has claimed responsibility for the attack. However, an accusing finger is pointed at the Tehreke Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which is active in the area.
The incident raises a concern about the way Pakistan perceives the gravity of terrorism. In this regard, five reasons draw attention.
First, the incident speaks volumes about the failure of the foreign office to put in place a proper security mechanism for the safety of foreign diplomats. The attack was a security lapse. The foreign office sent a convoy of diplomats with a flawed security plan and with a minimum escort. It is known that Swat is a perilous area brimming with Islamic fundamentalists mostly affiliated with the TTP, which is now at war with Pakistan. The TTP has been attacking Pakistan’s security forces not only from within but also from across the western border with Afghanistan.
Any mishap could have shown to the world that Pakistan’s soil was not free of terrorist groups
Second, permitting foreign diplomats en masse to travel on the road was a decision tantamount to a blunder. Recently, using a suicide bomber, the TTP attacked a travelling van of Chinese engineers. The incident forced the Chinese to halt their work on a dam. China protested the incident with Pakistan. It seems that the protest fell on deaf ears in Pakistan. Otherwise, Pakistan would not have put in danger the lives of foreign diplomats, who just escaped because the remote-controlled improvised explosive device did not touch their vehicle. In such a case, there would have been a national disaster and mourning in Pakistan. Surprisingly, no vehicle having the facility of signal jammers was accompanying the convoy of diplomats, who just escaped a disaster.
Third, it seems that information was leaked from within the police department to the TTP operatives, who prefer attacking high-value targets. Perhaps, Pakistan is miscalculating the outreach of the TTP. Pakistan might be thinking that the TTP was specifically against the Chinese. Pakistan assumes that the TTP is backed by those countries which want to restrain China’s approach to Gwadar. Here, Pakistan overlooks the fact that the TTP is against anything meant to improve Pakistan politically (diplomatically) or financially. Any damage to foreign dignitaries would have cost Pakistan a lot in the sense of the loss of diplomatic goodwill, besides the credibility of safe and secure tourism. At the moment, it is just China that is complaining. Anyway, without an insider giving a tip-off to the TTP, the attack could not have happened.
Fourth, the incident was also an act of indiscretion of foreign diplomats to move around an area known for being infested with the TTP operatives. Moreover, it was known that, in 2022, the TTP had broken a ceasefire agreement with Pakistan’s government. The TTP was openly challenging Pakistan’s security forces in the province of KPK. Recently, an uptick in the TTP’s activities has been noticed. For the TTP, the winter is mostly a time for hibernation, whereas the summer is a time for activities. Foreign dignitaries must also be concerned about their safety, instead of exposing themselves to danger unnecessarily.
Fifth, Pakistan is underestimating the TTP’s potential to wreak havoc whenever an opportunity arises. It is heartening to know that, in the recent past, Pakistan’s security forces have launched a series of military operations to subdue the TTP threat, but the threat has gone latent. It is not over yet, especially after Pakistan installed a barbed wire along the border with Afghanistan. This act has given the TTP an excuse to raise the flag of ethnic nationalism, instead of accepting the reality of an international border. Now, the TTP’s attacks are both sporadic and random. Perhaps, this is why the TTP is highly selective in its targets.
Generally speaking, despite Pakistan’s efforts to reconcile with the TTP by entering into a peace or ceasefire agreement, the TTP is relentless in its intent and ferocity. The antagonism has reached the point that Munir Akram, Pakistan’s ambassador to the United Nations, has recently told the Security Council that the TTP is an “umbrella organization” supporting several terrorist groups (such as al-Qaeda, Daesh, and Central Asian militants) in the region under the auspices of the Afghan Taliban ruling over Kabul.
In a way, Pakistan lodged an indirect complaint against the Kabul regime still harbouring varied Islamic militants. Pakistan says that Kabul has been overseeing a terrorist network which is dangerous not only for the region but also for the whole world. This point justifies the reason for which Pakistan and Afghan border security forces trade fire now almost regularly across the fence installed by Pakistan. However, the world is not paying any heed to Pakistan’s entreaties, even though the UN has not recognized the Afghan Taliban’s government in Kabul.
Presently, regarding the TTP, Pakistan’s preferences are two: first, the TTP does not hold any territory, as it used to control Swat and Waziristan in the past; and second, the TTP operatives do not cross the international boundary freely and unchecked.
Pakistan overlooks the fact that without complete submission of the TTP, the terrorist threat in the country’s northwest is lingering. Taking out foreign diplomats to such a volatile area was no short of a gaffe. Any mishap could have shown to the world that Pakistan’s soil was not free of terrorist groups and that Pakistan was incapable of subduing terrorism on its land. Certainly, Pakistan needs careful treading.
How the hidden curriculum in English textbooks shapes minds
By: Farhana Shahzad | September 25, 2024
The phrase "hidden curriculum" may sound like something out of a spy novel - a covert operation unfolding in the shadows. But it's a pervasive issue in education. It refers to the unwritten lessons, values and norms embedded in educational materials, often without the awareness of curriculum designers or educators. In the realm of English Language Teaching (ELT), this hidden curriculum frequently prioritises the culture of native English speakers while sidelining the cultural identity of non-native learners.
In countries like Pakistan, where English is taught as a second or foreign language, this issue takes on added urgency. The "target culture" that permeates these textbooks gradually displaces the "source culture" - the students' own cultural backgrounds. The outcome? A generation of students who may become fluent in English but feel estranged from their own cultural roots.
The Quiet Power of Textbooks
Textbooks are the cornerstone of any classroom, especially in English language instruction. For many teachers, they are the go-to resource for lesson planning - the holy grail of teaching tools. While these books excel at teaching language skills, they also carry a hidden agenda - one that often goes unnoticed. This agenda subtly promotes the culture of English-speaking countries, often at the expense of the students' native culture.
This may seem like a minor issue, but its consequences are profound. When students are continually exposed to a curriculum that celebrates foreign cultures while ignoring their own, they may begin to internalise a sense of cultural inferiority. Over time, this can erode their sense of identity and belonging.
A Closer Look at the Research
The impact of the hidden curriculum is not just theoretical; it's been documented in numerous studies. Researchers have found that the content of ELT textbooks can shape students' attitudes toward themselves, others and society at large. Cunningsworth (1995) noted that these hidden lessons can be even more influential than the official curriculum in shaping students' perceptions and cultural awareness.
In Pakistan, a study by Mahmood et al. (2012) analysed ELT textbooks used in a major private school chain and found a complete absence of Pakistani cultural representation. Instead, these textbooks were filled with references to foreign cultures, leaving students disconnected from their own heritage. This marginalisation of the source culture is not merely an oversight - it is a form of linguistic imperialism that can have long-lasting effects on students' self-esteem and cultural identity.
The Broader Significance
Why should we be concerned about this hidden curriculum? Should we allow it to remain unchallenged? For textbook developers profiting from the global demand for ELT materials, it may be a dream scenario. But for educators, policymakers and society at large, it's a problem that demands attention. The values and norms embedded in these textbooks are shaping the next generation of leaders, thinkers and citizens. When students are taught to value foreign cultures over their own, it not only affects their sense of identity but also diminishes their ability to engage meaningfully with their own society.
Strategic Solutions</