Articles Regarding Pakistan

Modi’s Moscow Mission: What the Indian PM’s visit to Russia signals to the West

by: Kanwal Sibal| June 29, 2024

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to visit Russia almost immediately after beginning his third term in office sends many diplomatic signals. The core message is that India continues to attach great importance to its ties with Russia, notwithstanding the collapse of Moscow’s ties with the West over the conflict in Ukraine, New Delhi's own increasing closeness to the US, and the importance it attaches to its ties with Western Europe.

We have come under pressure from our Western partners to reduce our ties with Russia, which we have resisted. We have maintained a high-level dialogue with Russia though the practice of annual summits has got disrupted. We have refused to apply Western sanctions though these have hampered our bilateral financial transactions. On energy, we have, in fact, expanded our oil trade with Russia to the point of Russia becoming our largest oil supplier.

The unique feature of our ties with Russia had been these annual summit meetings since the year 2000. The last such summit was in December 2021 when Russian President Vladimir Putin travelled to New Delhi. The Covid pandemic and Russia’s pre-occupation with the Ukraine conflict interrupted this practice.

Putin did not attend the G20 summit meeting last year, nor did he attend the G20 summit at Bali either. He has also prevaricated on the question of his attendance at the next G20 summit in Brazil.

Some misgivings in political circles arose because of the delay in resuming the summit meetings, especially with Modi’s highly publicised interactions with President Biden and European leaders such as Macron. These gave greater visibility to our relations with the West at the top leadership level and contrasted with a reduced exposure to our ties with Russia.

Our media has also contributed to the perception of a dilution of our ties with Russia by purveying the western line on the conflict in Ukraine. Reports from western agencies have been reproduced routinely. Think tank events have heavily featured western leaders who have used the platforms to attack Russia on our soil. The Russian presence at these events has been minimal.

External Affairs Minister Jaishankar’s visit to Russia in late December 2023 when he exceptionally called on President Putin indicated an effort to remove misgivings that India-Russia ties were waning politically. At the meeting Putin issued an invitation for Modi to visit Russia and Jaishankar subsequently indicated publicly that this visit would be on the cards in 2024.

Normally the India-Russia annual summit is held towards the later part of the year, which is not the most congenial time for a summit in Moscow because of cold weather conditions but is the most congenial time for a summit in India because of cooler weather here.

In the present instance, both sides seem to have considered it opportune to promptly convey a political message that ties at the bilateral level, and in the context of tense geopolitical realities, remainn important for both sides. Modi and Putin could have waited for the BRICS summit in Kazan in Russia in October this year to also hold a bilateral summit but have consciously chosen not to.

Modi attended the G7 summit in Italy days after he was sworn-in as Prime Minister. It was important that he attended as his absence could have been misconstrued as a lowering of his profile, and indeed that of India, after his election setback at home. The Western press have gloated at the “humbling” of Modi.

Modi rightly wanted to convey to the G7 leaders and to the Indian public that it would be business as usual on the external front, that the failure to secure an absolute majority in the national election had no bearing on the conduct of India’s foreign policy. It was necessary to convey a sense of confidence and self-assurance in his formal statement at the G7 outreach meeting as well as in his interaction with individual group leaders, who, as it happens, are politically much more seriously contested at home, whose popularity ratings are lower, with some heading minority governments and some who are slated to lose power in the next elections.

Modi clearly wanted to balance his participation of the G7 summit on the heels of his re-election with a summit meeting with Putin notwithstanding his busy political agenda at home.

Whether his decision was influenced by a recognition that powerful lobbies in the West would prefer a weaker leader at the helm of Indian affairs, which might explain the orchestrated political campaign against him prior to and during the elections in Western media, think tank, academic civil society and even political circles, in what constituted a clear interference in our election process, is a matter of speculation.

He may have wanted to negate any perception that a weaker government at the national level and a stronger opposition at home would make India more vulnerable to Western pressure bysignaling that India’s foreign policy course, its determination to preserve its strategic autonomy and pursue a policy of friendship with all, to best protect India’s national interest, would continue.

Modi will not be attending the SCO summit on July 3 as the parliamentary session in India will still be on. India has clear stakes in the SCO – and cannot yield strategic space in it to its disadvantage. The Deputy Secretary General post in the organisation is now held by an Indian. But the timetable is problematic. By visiting Russia a few days later Modi is partially compensating for his absence at the SCO summit, as Russia is a major pillar of the organization.

Modi’s early visit to Moscow is important also in the wider context of BRICS expansion. The BRICS summit in Kazan in Russia in October this year will decide on the group's expansion. India must have a strong say in the process as an original BRIC member. Purely geopolitical considerations, in the context of the sharpening North-South and East-West divides should not lead to including all-comers.

A consensus on objective criteria for expansion is in the best interest of the group and its objectives. This is a delicate exercise as some countries seeking membership are part of a military alliance or oppose transit and trade with specific countries, or have known terrorist affiliations.

Modi’s Moscow visit, in sum, has important bilateral, regional and international dimensions.

Universities and Empowered Socioeconomic Future

by: Dr. Zia Ahmed | June 29, 2024

Regardless of the multiple nature of the issues the universities face, their main function is to serve the people by providing a forum for discussion and debate to formulate wholesome policies for its people’s moral, social, and political uplift. Besides, the universities are expected to develop a genuine creation of new knowledge via research and implementation of innovations. Universities around the globe have worked wonders in this regard by inviting intellectuals and researchers to hold a constructive debate and dialogue on the world changing around them so that lawmakers or policymakers may constantly evolve for the freedom and well-being of their people. These universities have also generated a gigantic amount of knowledge which has boosted the scientific and technical progress of the above-mentioned countries that today the world is looking towards them for cooperation.

Unfortunately, in Pakistan, this has not happened with full letter and spirit because here universities have gradually fallen victim to political polarization, financial constraints, and an absence of genuine researchers and intellectuals. The universities could not harness the full potential of their existence and instead started to collect as much money as possible by lowering the quality to enhance the number of admissions and the relevant charges. While the private institutions were providing better infrastructure and facilities to their students, they became an imposing threat to the public universities and hence generated a competition for admissions which prompted the absence of merit. The unthoughtful policies of the government opened universities more than needed and so now universities are struggling to maintain their evening shifts. This tendency has severely damaged the quality of work.

Universities around the globe have worked wonders by inviting intellectuals and researchers to hold a constructive debate so policymakers may constantly evolve.

The creation of knowledge through research has become a race for earning money and each faculty member, be it in a private or public institution, is boasting of research papers and articles in triple digits. While the world watchdogs are reporting Pakistan is almost at the top ranking in plagiarism-related reports. In such a situation creation of real and innovative knowledge is a far cry and a distant dream because of multiple available and accessible resources. The university’s watchdogs need to develop filters for assessing quality research and to stop plagiarized or chatbot-generated material from getting published. Thanks to the newly enhanced filters of some indexes which would not allow any such materials to be ranked among the quality research papers.

There are now a sufficient number of colleges available for BS degree programs under the umbrella of renowned universities, so, universities must not seek admissions for BS programs and instead focus on the MS and PhD programs to engage their faculty in quality research and debate, as per the availability of faculty and the requisite resources. This society is facing huge sociopolitical issues and a struggle for its space in the world.

This needs solutions that only research at the universities can provide. We need to be tolerant and ethically strong people to make our mark in the world and that is only possible when universities generate free debate on the research done under them. The research should also be problem-solving in nature as per the ground realities of our society. The authorities and the policymakers must also join hands to pool up resources for maintenance and research at the universities and to provide a conducive environment for the work of the faculty. Besides these measures, job-oriented and market-oriented skill-based education must be propagated.

The curricula should be revisited in this regard because the graduating students from the universities are gradually becoming disappointed when they do not find jobs or work as per their qualifications. Our universities are capable of delivering for the good of societies only if a little policy shift and target-oriented delivery of education and research are ensured. This policy should also include the selection and promotion criterion in the universities. The entry-level recruitment can be made transparent and qualitative by involving the Federal Public Service Commission and the higher entry-level must ensure that the faculty being recruited has outperformed somehow and his research has contributed significantly to the scientific, social, ethical, and political uplift of the society. Once this type of impact factor and industrial liaison is ensured for promotion to the higher entry level, the race to get a maximum number of papers published in the shortest possible time is also expected to minimize to ensure the quality, not the quantity.

India is Not America’s ‘Friend in Need’

by: M A Hossain | June 29, 2024

Over the decades, the geopolitical landscape between the United States and India has reached new heights. Though this partnership has garnered significant attention, it’s essential to recognize that India’s engagement with the U.S. is driven more by pragmatic considerations than by a deep-rooted alliance. The growing proximity between the two nations is largely a strategic move by India. India’s ultimate aim is to counter the rise of its neighbor, China, rather than to align wholesale with American interests. So, in a geopolitical context, the U.S.-India pact is driven by regional supremacy over a geopolitical rival.

India’s strategic alignment with the United States has been significantly influenced by the need to counterbalance China’s growing assertiveness in Asia. Over the past decade, China has expanded its influence through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and increased military activities in the South China Sea. Moreover, India is almost surrounded by China-friendly nations. This expansionist agenda has raised alarms in New Delhi, which sees a direct threat to its own regional dominance and security.

The Doklam standoff in 2017, where Indian and Chinese troops faced off at the Bhutan-China-India tri-junction, exposed the tangible nature of this threat. Subsequently, the deadly clashes in the Galwan Valley in 2020 highlighted the volatile state of Sino-Indian relations. These incidents have propelled India to seek stronger security and economic ties with the United States, a nation with the military and economic clout to counterbalance China.

India’s participation in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which includes the U.S., Japan, and Australia, is a clear manifestation of this strategy. The Quad aims to promote a free and open Indo-Pacific, implicitly countering China’s regional influence. India’s involvement in this group indicates its desire to leverage U.S. support to ensure regional stability and prevent any single power, particularly China, from dominating the Indo-Pacific region.

From the U.S. perspective, India represents a critical partner in its broader strategy to contain the influence of both China and Russia. The U.S. recognizes India’s strategic location, vast market, and growing military capabilities as valuable assets in maintaining a balance of power in Asia. In reality, India is the only state that can play a significant role in counterbalancing America’s geopolitical rivals.

Washington’s foreign policy under successive administrations emphasized counterterrorism in Asia. When Western nations were busy using hard power to neutralize terrorism, China was consistently influencing those destabilized nations by using its soft power policy. After two decades of the ‘War on Terror,’ the U.S. and its allies found zero-sum achievements and hostile postures from those affected nations. To cover up this time-lapse dent with geopolitical strategic engagement, India is considered an ideal ally to create a coalition that can present a united front against authoritarian regimes in Beijing and Moscow.

The United States has consistently encouraged India to align more closely with Western policies and perspectives on global issues. This alignment is not just about military cooperation but also involves economic policies, technological exchanges, and diplomatic stances. For instance, the U.S. has pushed for India’s inclusion in various international forums and supported its bid for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council.

Despite its growing ties with the United States, India has maintained a historically significant relationship with Russia. This bond dates back to the Cold War era when India, under Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, pursued a policy of non-alignment but leaned towards the Soviet Union for support in key areas.

The strong bilateral relations between India and Russia have been evolving since the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship, and Cooperation was signed in 1971. During the Liberation War of Bangladesh in 1971, the Soviet Union’s diplomatic and military support was crucial for India’s diplomatic triumph over Pakistan. Subsequently, Russia has remained a vital source of defense equipment and technology for India. The BrahMos missile, a product of Indo-Russian collaboration, exemplifies the depth of their defense ties.

Even today, despite Western sanctions and international pressures, India continues to procure significant military hardware and crude oil from Russia. India’s Foreign Minister, Mr. Jaishankar, explicitly spelled out that India will prioritize its interests over geopolitical rivalries. This enduring relationship is rooted in trust and mutual benefit, making it challenging for India to completely pivot away from Russia in favor of U.S. interests.

The Indo-Pacific strategy is a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy aimed at countering China’s growing influence. The inclusion of India in this strategy is based on several factors. Firstly, India’s geographical location provides a strategic advantage in controlling key maritime routes in the Indian Ocean, through which a significant portion of global trade passes.

Secondly, India’s military capabilities and its role as an emerging regional power can assist in maintaining Western supremacy in this region. The U.S. views India as a counterweight to China’s military expansion and its assertive postures in South and Central Asia.

Thirdly, the democratic values shared by the U.S. and India form a basis for cooperation in promoting stability and governance in the region. The U.S. sees India as a partner in championing democracy and countering the influence of alternative regimes. The U.S. expects India to see China and Russia through Washington’s eyes.

Furthermore, the economic potential of India as a growing market and a hub for technological innovation aligns with the U.S. objective of creating a resilient supply chain that reduces dependence on China. The U.S.’s information technology sector is significantly dependent on Indian experts. The U.S. shares its military, surveillance, and intelligence technology with India, which paves the way to counter China’s psychological warfare.

India’s engagement with the United States is primarily driven by strategic necessity rather than a deep-seated alliance. The rise of China as a regional hegemon has pushed India closer to the U.S., but this relationship is not devoid of complexities. India’s historical ties with Russia and its pursuit of strategic autonomy suggest that it is not ready to fully align with any single power bloc.

The U.S. aims to integrate India into its Indo-Pacific strategy to counterbalance China and Russia, leveraging India’s strategic position and capabilities. However, India’s foreign policy will likely continue to be characterized by a careful balancing act, maintaining its traditional partnerships while exploring new ones to safeguard its national interests.

In essence, while the U.S. may see India as a crucial partner in its global strategy, India is not America’s ‘friend in need’ in the traditional sense. The relationship is one of mutual benefit and strategic pragmatism, reflecting the complex realities of contemporary geopolitics.

CPEC and Economic Growth

by: Sajjad Bukhari | June 28, 2024

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is not only a cooperative endeavour between Pakistan and China, rather the Corridor carries a regional impact. CPEC will be a bridge between South, East and Central Asia. The economic dividends linked to the corridor will benefit the three regions. Central-South Asia connectivity will open up prospects of energy cooperation. Likewise, Kashgar-Gwadar linkage will open up trade cooperation between countries of East and South Asia. With economic connectivity, the political environment as a whole will be more inclined towards economic interdependence and trading ties. The transition towards geo-economics will also strengthen the prospects of technological exchange. This development will be useful for the developing economies as the countries will get an opportunity to learn from the best practices and expertise of China in trade, agriculture and technology. Besides, the Special Economic Zones (SEZs) built under the CPEC is a positive step towards industrialisation. With foreign companies in SEZs, the local companies will get an exposure of international markets. The local companies can learn from foreign companies; it can provide a base to connect with international markets.

With economic connectivity, the political environment, as a whole, will be more inclined towards economic interdependence.

Seeing the importance of CPEC, in context of Pakistan and China, the corridor is reflective of both countries orientation towards geo-economics. Pakistan and China’s orientation towards economic growth varies as China is an economic power whereas Pakistan faces challenges of economic growth. However, in either of the case, both the countries tilt towards regional connectivity is to out-manoeuver the challenges at regional front. For China, CPEC is an economic outlet to trans-regionally grow beyond East Asia. CPEC will provide China with an easy access to Indian Ocean and more outlets for China’s growing economy. In context of Pakistan, the country having fought militancy for more than a decade is still confronted with terrorism, due to which the country’s economy has suffered. With CPEC, Pakistan can improve its economy, challenges like poverty, joblessness will be addressed. The socio-economic development will deter the extremist tendencies. Thus, CPEC’s significance for both China and Pakistan is economic growth.

CPEC’s aim is trade connectivity, and economic prosperity. The idea is in line with the narrative of peace and regional stability. However, there are elements which do not want an economically prosperous South Asia. Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Kulbhushan Yadav are reflective of the coercive and subversive pursuits targeted at sabotaging CPEC. This adversarial mindset is a challenge for the smooth operation of CPEC. In March this year, Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) militants tried to infiltrate the Gwadar Port Authority (GPA) complex, the terrorist attempt was foiled by the Pakistan Army. Such attacks are a reminder that to connect economically, terrorism will have to be defeated. Another dimension of CPEC is China’s enhanced role in region. This aspect has a geopolitical connotation. India wary of losing regional ground to China has opposed CPEC. Indian stance over CPEC is a testament to regional confrontational politics. Here the point that needs deliberation is the linkage of terrorism with non-traditional security challenges like extreme poverty. The countries that are opposing CPEC need to look at the corridor from a regional lens. Terrorism and human security are issues that require efforts at regional front. ASEAN is an example in which, the Southeast Asian economies have flourished as region. The ASEAN countries have disputes with China in the South China Sea but the conflicting claims have not stopped the countries from economic cooperation. In South Asia, the lack of a vision to grow as a region is an impediment in countries economic growth.

Lastly, in backdrop of terrorism’s regional impact, there is a need to evolve a regional counter terrorism approach. Conducive political environment will encourage foreign investment. Thus, the hostile regional approaches need to be replaced with economic cooperation.

India, Israel and Kargil

by: Aneela Shahzad| June 28, 2024

Save the Children has estimated over 21,000 children to be lost or under the rubble in Gaza, as “the latest displacements caused by the offensive in Rafah have separated more children and further increased the strain on families and communities.” A UN-backed panel of experts has found that almost half a million people in Gaza face starvation, and one in five households go whole days without food.

The chief of the International Committee of the Red Cross in Rafah described Rafah City as a “ghost town… you see very few people, high levels of destruction”. The UNRWA chief has decried a near total breakdown of public order and safety, making aid work impossible, adding that only two out of sixteen countries have resumed UNRWA funding.

The Gaza War may not have spilled out into the region, yet but it is boiling at the brinks. The unequaled suffering of the people of Gaza is a scathing price for their aspired freedom, a price perhaps only they are willing to pay. Uniquely so, present at the heart of human civilisation, Palestine presents a living model of genocide, apartheid, human rights violations and seven decades of oppression and abuse — an exhibit humanity sees everyday and does nothing about it! This is cold, wretched liberal, capitalist, individualistic indifference, a global pandemic we all share. But some perhaps more than others are not sick of it, they cherish it!

Among those are Israel’s western allies that give it funds, weapons and political backing in international forums. Right from the Balfour Agreement (1917) to date, they have backed the Zionist Project of stealing the land of Palestine from its rightful owners, and putting on a profane display of continuous persecution of a Muslim community in the heart of the Arab world, day in day out. This cannot be deemed a nostalgia caused by the religious underpinnings of the secular West. It is by far a conscious criminal act of evil against a targeted section of humanity — an evil that can easily be undone if the will for it be.

But this burden of guilt borne by the white Christian West is perhaps so attractive for someone in the East — i.e. India — that they have come running to share it.

Modi, as soon as winning a third term, had to come to the aid of hug-buddy Netanyahu. News is out of former Israeli ambassador to India Daniel Carmon claiming the India is supplying drones and artillery to Israel, in return of their favour in the Kargil War (1999) when Israel had done the same for them. One asks: what does India gain by becoming a part of a genocide that infuriates 1.9 billion Muslims worldwide, 204 million of whom live inside India? One asks: was such an act not evitable? Or was it inevitable, for India?

Inevitable because Israel and India share, perhaps not religion, but ideology, a sinister one. Time and again Modi and Netanyahu have expressed solidarity in the fact that they are both suffering from the same scourge of terrorism that India faces in Kashmir and Israel at the hands of the Palestinians.

In 2018, at Modi’s historical visit to Israel, Israeli Foreign Ministry Mark Sofer said, “I really don’t see any difference between the Lashkar-e-Taiba and the Hamas.” Immediately after the Feb 2019 Pulwama attack, Netanyahu expressed his solidarity with Modi again saying “the Jewish nation stood behind India.” The Israeli envoy, Dr Ron Malka, then stated that “there is no limit” to the Israeli assistance to India, “we share our technique because we really want to help our really important friend.”

On Oct 10, three days after the Gaza attack, Modi called Netanyahu saying that he was deeply shocked and that “people of India stand firmly with Israel in this difficult hour. India strongly and unequivocally condemns terrorism in all its forms and manifestations”. Here ‘people of India’ are the extremist far-right Hindutva lovers expressing unity with Israel’s extremist far-right. And it’s not just Kargil where they have been collaborating, Israel has provided military assistance to India in the 1962, 1965 and 1971 wars too.

In 2014, India and Israel signed agreements on ‘Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters, Cooperation in Homeland and Public Security, and Protection of Classified Material’ and working groups regarding border management, internal security and public safety, police modernisation and capacity building for combating crime, crime prevention and cybercrime were established.

Since then, and especially after the abrogation of Article 370, Indian counterterrorism has increasingly imitated tactics used by Israel against Palestinians. These include surveillance of social media; installing CCTV cameras in schools across Kashmir; use of pellet guns; humiliating house searches in the middle of the night; and search and cordon operations.

Now in returning all those favours, how far can India go. Few months back Modi also offered 100,000 Indian construction workers to replace Palestinian workers in Israel. Just imagine how the Palestinians would feel about that; surely it would be clear to them, whose side India is on. Decisively so, India is on the side of Israel, the US, the West. And that is decisively the side opposite to that of the Russians, the Chinese, the Persians and increasingly so the Arabs — the very wrong side of history!

India has proven that as a nation it stands with genocide and oppression; that as a political entity it lacks the wisdom to appropriate friendship and enmity in the right places; that as a section of humanity it is unable to stand the moral stature required of great people with great civilisational heritage.

Is it lust or stupidity? Is it the unfruitful ambition to become a regional power? Or is it the collective nostalgia of the people who have allowed their fanatic far-right to drag them away from a future with the Global South, away from a coming century of prosperity and towards a confrontation with Asian neighbours — a confrontation with the BRICS friends and the Arabs — in a bid to partake in the power the West has, a power they are losing fast?

How high is the Sino-Pak friendship?

by: Shahzad Chaudhry| June 28, 2024

The question has been posed frequently in the last some weeks and found favour in the Indian media for obvious reasons. The two principals in Pakistan’s power equation, the prime minister and the army chief, were both in China recently where they held numerous meetings with China’s top leadership. The prime minister visited for an unprecedented five days. China’s minister for International Department followed up with a Joint Consultative Meeting in which the two sides discussed the progress on CPEC, the corridor to economic and infrastructure development between China and Pakistan. That doesn’t seem like a souring relationship between two iron brothers. But there have been problems which have needed attention at this level of engagement. CPEC has not yet matured beyond an infrastructural undertaking and the real fruit — the special economic zones which would bring the desperately needed industry and jobs, and thus exports and the FE — has lain unattended with not even perfunctory progress.

The reasons mostly pertain to capacities within Pakistan to give these projects the right attention and spare finances required to put in place the necessary infrastructure. From political disharmony to a decaying ability to transmit power, to producing lesser and lesser electricity — power consumption in Pakistan is reducing at the rate of 12 per cent per annum — to an international and IMF concern of Pakistan being drowned in debt, mostly Chinese, have literally paralysed decision making which could have moved the needle forward. China calls CPEC its flagship programme in the Silk Road project aimed at expanding its reach and influence as well as resource its critical needs from the Middle East and adjoining Eurasian region. A suspended or a slowed CPEC threatens the entire edifice of China’s future strategy. China should be genuinely concerned.

Pakistan owes around 130 billion USD in debt to the outside world. This is one-third of its gross GDP. Of this she owes 68 billion USD or more to China. CPEC constitutes 62 billion of those, of which approximately 35 billion has already been utilised on infrastructure and roads, etc. Economic activity meant to generate jobs and returns hasn’t yet begun. IMF which is the lender of the last resort, and a Washington monopoly, wishes Pakistan to work the debt out with China before it should lend more to Pakistan and be the saviour that Pakistan looks to for greater credibility as an investment destination. The PM and the army chief were in Beijing to request exactly such reprieve through debt rescheduling. It is unlikely they will get it. The Chinese instead may proffer more loan to retire the debt which falls due keeping the fidelity of their financial system intact even when they help a proclaimed friend from an impending bankruptcy. More loans add to the debt burden kicking the can further down the road.

Strategically, the US would like to minimise China’s influence and ingress in Pakistan. In the worst case it shall hope to coexist with equal if not greater influence with Pakistan’s power circles. This conundrum will challenge Pakistan’s leadership inevitably becoming acute with time. Unless of course Pakistan changes paradigm of its engagement with the world at large and is seen to be a strategically and economically productive partner than a liability keeping afloat through debt dependence. Else, it will surely be dispensed away by one or both without much consequence to their interests. At serious cost, of course, to Pakistan.

Pakistan’s lament with China is deeper. Previous governments finalised power-plant deals with Chinese companies which inducted retiring plants on coal but with a promised dual-cycle modifications. Even when completed those have continued to produce expensive electricity with adverse fuel efficiency. Expensive electricity has only meant dearer power to the consumers which when unpaid has built an insurmountable circular debt. The contracts envisage capacity charges in USDs to power producers even when they do not produce any power because of the inability of Distribution Companies to pay for it.

Electric power in Pakistan today is oversubscribed. With a standing capacity touching 50000 MW it can only transmit and use 25000 MW. A combination of its inability to finance power and make it available to consumers at affordable rates means there are long hours of forced outages to domestic and industrial consumers. All attempts by Pakistan to renegotiate the power contracts to more tolerable levels have turned a blank. China’s government backed consortiums would not budge. The cross has become just too big to carry. Other than debt it is the bankruptcy of the energy sector which has the making of taking the entire economy down with no way out of this debilitation.

The US has a minor stake in the power mix but what they have is decidedly more efficient with a reduced carbon footprint. They will however commit only so much to investing with Pakistan. Pakistan needs to trapeze between these two variables and yet retain its balance. It will only get more difficult with time. Strategic dimensions of peace and security in the region and economic interests, however, will keep Pakistan engaged with the US for the foreseeable future. China too will remain intrinsic to Pakistan’s long and short-term interests on similar grounds. To choose between the two, however, is neither probable nor possible. For the moment China understands this vulnerability well to not insist on a clear demarcation in this binary. Ditto the US. Pakistan will be lucky if these two principals of Pakistan’s policy remain as rationally supportive of its needs and limitations.

China has three principal complaints of Pakistan. One, it is disappointed and dissatisfied with the state of security in the areas where Chinese nationals work. Many have been abducted and killed in terrorist acts. China wants Pakistan to ensure foolproof security before any meaningful work is resumed. That has spurred another look and another promise within the security apparatus to expand the counter-terrorism effort, as it must be. Second, Pakistan has failed at developing its own sources and arrangements to provide and prepare the infrastructure in the special economic zones to make them functional. China is thus unable to relocate its retiring industry in Pakistan to spur growth and help Pakistan create jobs and the FE it desperately needs. And thirdly, a barely floating economy is the least attractive for any investor to place his money in with any assurance. Especially, when most local industry is moving out because of unsustainability.

Chinese attach greatest importance to symbols in their dealings with other nations. When they call their relationship with Pakistan as sacred as Mount Tai — the most sacred of the five peaks in China — that may seem lowering the scale from the 29000 feet Himalayan peak to just five thousand feet of sacred height. Yet sacred it is. Why would it not be with so much at stake. For how long is the question.

What Modi’s return means for India

by: Syed Mohammad Ali | June 28, 2024

So, Modi is a Prime Minister once again. While Modi did not secure another landslide victory as was widely predicted, still he is back at the helm of affairs in the second most populous country in the world. Many analysts are claiming that being part of a coalition government will make it difficult for Modi to do as he pleases. Others are impressed by the resurgence of the Indian opposition, under the Congress leadership. However, hoping that India is now going to self-correct itself, in ideal democratic fashion, may be wishful thinking.

That Modi has lost some support is still significant. Modi’s supporters will probably have an increasingly tough time defending his portrayal “as the most popular leader in the world”. Indian Adivasi tribes, which had been increasingly marginalised by Modi’s top-heavy economic development policies, have not voted for him. Despite his public spending spree, Modi also failed to win over lower caste Hindus, who are also disenchanted by Hindu nationalist rhetoric, which did little to improve their lives. Farmers in Haryana and Punjab did not either support Modi due to his attempts to further liberalise agriculture. Muslims, and other religious minorities, including the Christians, largely supported the Congress and its big-tent alliance of multiple parties, known as Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). However, despite winning a lot of religious minority votes, the Congress also has a problematic history with both the Sikhs and the Muslims. The present-day Congress-led INDIA platform also included ultra-regionalist political parties such as Shiv Sena. Modi has exacerbated communal tensions, but this is a problem which predates his rise, and one which may remain a source of internal tensions after Modi is no longer in politics.

For now, however, Modi lacks an absolute majority in the parliament. Despite allegations of rigging, the BJP has now formed a government, reliant on regional parties like the Telugu Desam Party and the Janata Dal United, which are not prone to endorsing increased anti-Muslim rhetoric. These developments have raised hopes amongst many liberal-minded Indians at home, as well as Indian supporters abroad, that Modi’s chokehold on state institutions will also weaken, in turn allowing human rights groups and other government critics to become more assertive.

Yet, some perturbing initial steps have been already taken by the incumbents. For instance, no key ministries (defence, finance or home/interior) were given to any coalition partner. There are no Muslims in Modi’s new cabinet. Amit Shah is still the Home Minister of India, a man who had perfected the art of using the label of anti-terrorism to quash all forms of dissent.

If Modi has any desire to curb majoritarianism, he should pay heed to the lengthy list of recommendations prepared by Human Rights Watch (HRW) for the incoming government. Some of the suggestions in this list ask the Indian government to stop persecuting dissenters, compel the police and judiciary to offer protection to the minorities, and ensure the security apparatus averts rampant abuses in the name of quelling insurgencies. HRW has also called for amending the Citizenship Amendment Act 2019, which denies refugee status to Muslims, including the Rohingyas. It has further pointed to the need for repealing state level anti-conversion laws, and laws banning cow slaughter.

Despite his electoral disappointment, Modi is unlikely to abandon majoritarianism or offer meaningful protections to India’s minorities, to its restive regions, or to his dissenters. It will also be surprising if the Indian Supreme Court goes back on its recent decision to endorse revocation of Kashmir’s special status. The Indian media and civil society may become more proactive though. There may be some respite for minorities facing the increasing threat of violence at the hands of Hindu extremists. Yet, the biggest preoccupation for the new Modi government will probably be trying to address the rampant joblessness and inequalities which the Modinomics has produced. Modi has turned Indian into the world’s fifth largest economy, but it remains a nation which is unable to provide even the most basic of necessities to a vast majority of its populace.

Dismantling the RAW-Backed Nexus

by: Javed Iqbal| June 27, 2024

Pakistan’s security forces’ efforts to curb the menace of terrorism got a breakthrough when the security forces foiled the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and Balochistan Liberation Army Majeed Brigade’s plot to build hideouts under the nexus in Balochistan.

This development was shared with the media by Balochistan Home Minister, Mir Ziaullah Langove, in a presser in Quetta. According to the media reports, two Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan high-value commanders namely Nasrullah alias Maulvi Mansoor and Idris alias Irshad were apprehended by the intelligence agencies.

While explaining the details of the terrorists’ apprehension, the Home Minister paid rich tribute to the intelligence agency for conducting a challenging and complicated intelligence operation. The detained commander Nasrullah alias Maulvi Mansoor while narrating his story revealed that before joining Tehreek-e- Taliban Pakistan, he had been taking part in subversive activities from the platform of Baitullah Mehsud and fled to Afghanistan during Operation Zarb-e-Azb. He was serving as the head of the Tehreek-e- Taliban Pakistan Defence Shura and was centrally controlling all of its military, financial and administrative affairs when arrested.

Mere condemnation of terrorism will not make any difference.

The detained TTP Commander further disclosed that the Indian agency, RAW, managed the nexus of BLA Majeed Brigade and TTP Khawarij under the complete patronage of the Afghan Taliban. The main objective of the RAW was to build terrorist hideouts in Khuzdar and to sabotage Pak-China Friendship and CPEC. TTP and BLA’s link is also aimed at building a narrative of missing persons by carrying out activities for kidnapping for ransom.

Maulvi Mansoor said the entire leadership of TTP including Maulvi Noor Wali Mehsud and BLA Majeed Brigade Commander Bashir Zeb are hiding in Afghanistan and are enjoying full support of the Afghan government.

Confession by the TTP commander Nasrullah alias Maulvi Mansoor is not the first evidence of the usage of Afghan soil against Pakistan for terrorism. The Pakistani government has time and again shared evidence of TTP terrorism activities resulting in the loss of precious lives and severely damaging government efforts for economic revival. Pakistan also raised this issue with the world community and urged them to play their role in peace and security of the region.

It is high time for Kabul to understand its obligation under the Doha agreement and stop using proxies against Pakistan. It is also the responsibility of the world community to pressure the Taliban Govt to honour its words. Mere condemnation of terrorism will not make any difference. Besides this, India should also be held accountable for supporting terrorist activities in Pakistan and putting the stability of the whole region at stake.

Terror Web Exposed in Baluchistan

by: Faisal Ahmad | June 27, 2024

Arrest of high-value terrorists including the main commander of the banned TTP Shura Nasarullah aka Maulvi Mansoor is a major achievement of intelligence agencies. The outcome of the investigations shared in a presser by the home minister of Baluchistan reflects the severity of the brewing security crisis stemming from Afghanistan under the patronage of India.

Consequent to successful intelligence-based operations, recent arrests have amply exposed the TTP’s designs for expanding terror networks in Baluchistan. As the federal cabinet has granted formal approval to operation Azm-e-Istehkam, conclusions extracted from the eye-opening confession of TTP commander Nasarullah merit extraordinary attention.

First, banned terrorist groups are making full use of safe havens available in Afghanistan to attack Pakistan.

Second, the interim government of the Taliban has failed to suppress terrorist groups. Instead of paying attention to Pakistan’s legitimate concerns, the interim government’s provision of blatant support to anti-Pakistan terrorists is a clear and present danger to national security and fragile bilateral relations.

Third, despite the wide ideological gap between the banned TTP and Baloch separatist terrorists, the recently revealed strategic cooperation between both sides is astonishing. It also confirms that common handlers are moving the strings of religiously misled extremists and self-styled ethnically motivated separatist terrorists. Proxy handlers are trying to dislodge the writ of state with a fusion of terrorist groups having ideologies polls apart.

The prolonged inaction of the Taliban regime against anti-Pakistan proxies on Afghan soil might worsen the regional security matrix beyond imagination.

Fourth, the Indian rogue agency RAW is behind the terrorist groups fighting against the state of Pakistan. Nasarullah has disclosed numerous meetings of TTP leader Noor Wali and BLA Majeed Brigade militant Bashir Zeb with RAW officials in Kabul.

Fifth, Banned TTP is operating against Pakistan with the full support of influential elements of the interim Taliban government.

Sixth, the Unnatural alliance of religious extremists with BLA has triggered divisions among the banned TTP top hierarchy. According to the confession statement of Nasarullah, banned TTP commander Noor Wali is exploiting the Jihad terminology and using the non-Mehsud Pushtun foot soldiers as fodder in suicide attacks.

Seventh, the masterminds hiding in Afghanistan want to weaken the writ of the state by continuously targeting Pakistan’s armed forces and law enforcement agencies.

The terrorists are hell-bent on the mission of raising a wave of anarchy, chaos and instability in the country. The recent storm of terrorist attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan is aimed at sabotaging the CPEC and the overall stability of the country. Peace restored with innumerable sacrifices cannot be left at the mercy of foreign-sponsored terrorists. Sons of soil are continuously laying their lives in defence of the motherland. To defeat the monster of terrorism at the national level, the state should seek support from all segments of society. Formulation of a rehashed counter-terrorism strategy is not possible without broad political consensus.

Pakistan Army is still playing a central role in the complex war against terrorism. This need is being felt strongly that all state institutions including police, judiciary, legislature, political parties and media should play a proactive role.

Swift conduct of Intelligence-based operations in KP wiped out the terrorists involved in heinous attacks without wasting time. Prompt retaliatory counter-terrorist operations speak volumes about the superior intelligence craft and professional standards of troops pitched in the nerve-breaking war against hardcore terrorists. The recent call of the PM to launch operation Azm-e-Istehkam should not be viewed through the politicized lens.

A delay in the consolidation of CT efforts would be detrimental to the restoration of national stability. Terrorist groups have regrouped under the Indian umbrella with a clear aim to destabilize Pakistan and dent the superiority of China. As it happened in past, a strong message should be sent to all regional and global players that Pakistan stands united against all forms of terrorism.

According to the National Action Plan, the role of provincial governments is crucial in the eradication of terrorism and extremism. National security is a shared responsibility between the federal and provincial governments.

The disappointing response of opposition predominantly PTI on the issue of CT operations is serving the purpose of forces inimical to the stability of Pakistan. While in power for the third consecutive term in KP, PTI should introspect the CT failures at the provincial level amid the resurging terrorism wave under her watch. Zero tolerance against terrorism is the right course to deal with the menace.

The appreciable CT track record of armed forces and intelligence agencies reaffirms the national resolve against terrorism. It is about time for the international community which keep neglecting the rogue terrorist activities of Indian state institutions.

The prolonged inaction of the Taliban regime against anti-Pakistan proxies on Afghan soil might worsen the regional security matrix beyond imagination. An internationally unrecognized regime in Kabul should weigh out the consequences of its flawed approach amid the unshakeable resolve of Pakistan against terrorism.

How to manage this education emergency

by: Naveed Ahmed Shaikh| June 27, 2024

Pakistan’s prime minister’s declaration of an education emergency is a long-overdue recognition of the severe state of the nation’s education system.

However, while well-intentioned, the 14-point plan released by the government lacks the urgency and transformative potential that an actual emergency demands. It reiterates existing initiatives, raising concerns about its effectiveness in addressing the deep-rooted issues that are causing a crisis in the sector.

A closer look at these 14 points reveals that these plans have been tested, achieving varying levels of success. While there is no harm in revisiting these reforms, one struggles to find a single point that necessitates declaring an emergency.

These directives include initiatives to reduce the number of out-of-school children; improve the quality of teaching staff; enhance the health and nutrition of students; promote community-based teaching; establish financial support systems for students; replicate successful educational models; launch skill development programmes; develop online education resources; expand financial aid programmes; promote financial literacy; and foster innovation in education.

An education emergency is a powerful tool that allows for implementing extraordinary measures that, under normal circumstances, might face bureaucratic delays or political resistance. It serves as a beacon of hope, reminding us that the usual pace of policy implementation is woefully inadequate to address the urgency of the nation’s educational deficiencies. It underscores the immediate and effective action that is desperately needed, offering a path towards transformative change.

Pakistan lags in nearly all indicators, like literacy rate, net enrolment, and quality of education. For instance, let’s take one indicator: primary education completion rates. While many countries in the region have made significant strides in ensuring children complete their primary education, Pakistan is falling behind.

Data from Unesco shows that Pakistan’s primary school completion rate has slowly risen from 41 per cent in 2000 to 54 per cent in 2020. Despite this progress, the rate of improvement is worryingly slow, suggesting that Pakistan may not achieve universal primary education until 2083 (Article 25A of the constitution covers both primary and secondary education levels).

This consistent underperformance has positioned Pakistan as a unique country in the world. For instance, Pakistan’s primary completion rate is the lowest among countries with populations over 50 million. Pakistan’s tax-to-GDP ratio of 11 per cent severely restricts the investment potential needed to rescue the education system. As reflected in a World Bank index, the country’s public administration inefficiency places Pakistan below nations like Uganda and Nigeria. This inefficient bureaucratic structure renders Pakistan’s reform delivery arm almost ineffective. All this points to the fact that business as usual will not work.

Consensus on two broad points is essential across all political parties to move forward. First, short-term reforms are inadequate for a country as large as Pakistan. The reform horizon should be set for at least 10 years. Education reform is not akin to a road project; it requires a more-extended timeframe to implement meaningful changes. Frequent shifts in priorities every 3-5 years disrupt progress and ultimately do not benefit any political party.

Second, there needs to be a shift towards outcome-based financing. Education departments’ weak delivery mechanisms often lead to misappropriation and resource wastage, which is particularly detrimental in a sector struggling with limited resources.

There is a growing citizen-level consensus that the present trajectory is not only alarming but also poses an existential threat to the very being of the nation-state of Pakistan. As in existential wars, Pakistan must mobilize society-wide resources to rescue the nation. The prime minister’s call for action by declaring an education emergency must not be another missed opportunity for us, for we cannot afford it anymore.

A Covid-like forum must be constituted to coordinate state-wide resources. In the following paragraphs, an outline is being presented as a probable pathway:

Resource mobilization: Education should be declared a priority sector for all public and private establishments. Tax rebate incentives must be granted to private industries, banks, and goods and services providers if they enrol, retain, and provide quality education. For every 100,000 students, a 1.0 per cent tax rebate could be provided. This same incentive scheme should be extended to profit-making state-owned enterprises.

Like the carbon credit markets, these rebates should be made tradable to create a virtuous cycle connecting efficient and reputable education service providers with businesses. If implemented well, this incentive alone can bring hundreds of thousands of out-of-school children to formal schooling.

Pakistan has a robust banking and finance system. It can be fully leveraged if the education sector is legally declared an industrial/SME sector. To enrol 26 million additional children, Pakistan must make substantial investments in infrastructure and human resources. This goal cannot be achieved solely through taxpayer money. A two-pronged approach involving credit-based financing and student-based fee reimbursement from the public sector can potentially expedite the establishment of new schools.

Legal and regulatory change: The 18th Amendment has devolved the education sector to the provincial level. Before this amendment, education was on a concurrent list. However, this devolution remained incomplete. The education emergency will not achieve its goals unless education is devolved to the local government/district levels.

Institutional mechanism: In almost 25 years, education departments have raised the achievement levels to barely a few points, if not reversed. Take just one example: the primary completion rate, as discussed above. This progress barely encourages us to trust the education departments across the country to meet the targets of the education emergency.

It is probably appropriate to say that education is too serious a business to be left to Pakistan’s education departments. The country can adopt the following suggestions:

On the pattern of the Covid forum, the highest level of coordinating and implementing forum should be notified to work under the auspices of the SIFC.

A public-private authority dedicated to the education emergency should be formed to oversee Pakistan’s business sector’s contribution to education.

A consortium of public, private and development partners should be formed to monitor the outcomes of the above initiatives.

Declaring an education emergency in Pakistan is a significant step towards addressing the deep-rooted issues plaguing the sector. However, without a robust and actionable follow-up plan, this declaration risks becoming yet another missed opportunity.

The plan outlines a roadmap to mobilize resources, implement necessary legal changes, and establish robust institutional mechanisms to ensure that the education emergency leads to transformative change, setting Pakistan on a path to educational excellence.

The writer is a Fulbright scholar and education policy expert with over 20 years of experience in the public sector.

Istanbul, not…

by: F.S. Aijazuddin| June 27, 2024

TURKISH cuisine is to die for, not from. What seafood is to the Japanese, meat is for the Turks. It promises longevity.

The average lifespan of a Japanese is 84 years, a Turk 71 years. Indulgent Pakistanis last only 66 years.

Türkiye today is where Pakistan should have been, had it been properly husbanded. Pakistan, although a brother in Islam, took instead the path of unbridled procreation. Türkiye’s population (99 per cent Muslim) increased from 21 million in 1950, to 86m in 2023. Over the same period, Pakistan’s population burgeoned from 34m to over 220m. Birth control is spelt differently in Turkish.

Today, while Pakistan is still struggling to emerge out of its ideological sac, Türkiye knows what it is. It is the Türkiye envisaged by its Jinnah; ie, Kemal Atatürk. On Nov 10 each year — Atatürk’s death anniversary — all Türkiye comes to a halt and observes one minute’s silence. Jinnah shares his birthday with Jesus Christ and Nawaz Sharif.

The late president Pervez Musharraf studied in Türkiye until 1956. He spoke Turkish fluently. Unfortunately, that is all he learned. He forgot Türkiye’s seismic shift from a khaki kleptocracy to a democratically elected dictatorship.

Türkiye today is where Pakistan should have been.

Its present ruler, Recep Erdogan, has been in power as prime minister, then president, since 2003. On his way up, he served as Istanbul’s mayor. (In China, being mayor of Shanghai helps in reaching Beijing.)

In 1999, he served four months in jail for making a speech in which he recited Ziya Gökalp’s 1912 poem, Soldier’s Prayer. Erdogan quoted: ‘Minarets are bayonets, domes are helmets, mosques are our barracks, believers are soldiers’.

Is Erdogan a second Atatürk? No. Türkiye’s pantheon has only one place at the top. Is he a Turkish version of the Saudi MBS? Erdogan, even if he had the money, is too canny to waste resources on the folly of a $1.5 trillion Neom city project.

Türkiye — dismissed in the 19th century as the “sick man of Europe”, and, in the 20th century, denied entry into the EU — has decided to steer its own course. It is a vibrant example of a benign Islam — shorn of ritualism and an intrusive clergy.

Its priorities are education, infrastructure and expanding tourism. In 2023, Türkiye’s income from 57m visitors exceeded $54 billion. The largest number — Russians — live within spitting distance across the Black Sea. Pakistan sent 140,388, less than 155,155 Mexicans. The Mongolian hordes have yet to invade Türkiye. A Turkish Chinatown is still decades away.

A 1990 guide book warned travellers that Turks were just “beginning to learn about living on plastic”. Modern Turks are now as addicted to plastic cards as the Americans are to plastic surgery.

Turkey is becoming a preferred destination for medical tourism. Almost half a million foreign visitors come to have their Iooks improved (or damaged) by Botox procedures. Some hospitals have dedicated hotels where patients check in, go next door to have their operation, and return for five-star recuperation.

In Istanbul, stray dogs and cats are tagged at official expense and pampered with free meals and comfortable kennels. The Indian cynophile, Maneka Gandhi, who fought for Delhi’s canines, would have been gratified. After the recent Eidul Azha holidays (known as Kurban Bayrami), bones became hard to come by. A rabies epidemic could force the Turkish administration to rethink its hospitality.

Despite the keenness to encourage tourists, Turks are curiously xenophobic. They insist on speaking only Turkish. This often leads to a dialogue of the deaf between Turks and strangers, until both tap into their mobile phones for translation.

Istanbul’s shopping malls are a treat, even for a tourist tired of London. In them, designer outlets rub cheeks with shops offering every kind of Turkish sweetmeats and flavours of honey. Haunches of cured meat compete with Harrods’ Food Hall. The generational divide appears in the Food Court, where hamburgers and fried chicken overwhelm traditional adana kebabs and shorba.

Türkiye is now more than a country; it is an experience. To savour its fullness, one needs to immerse oneself in it. Young locals do it by dipping into the Bosphorus, which is remarkably clean considering the armada of tankers, cruise ships, ferries and boats that ply through it.

To spend a few days in a Turkish hotel is to escape from home. To live in a villa in the cool, silent suburb of Zekeriyaköy, high in the green, undulating hills that overlook Istanbul, is to holiday in heaven.

Over Kurban Bayrami, its affluent residents fled to their second seaside homes, leaving streets empty for dogs, their walkers, and for those who prefer their Eid away from an urban abattoir.

Holiday in Türkiye. You will emerge from its hammam physically cleansed, emotionally relaxed, and pummelled free of domestic anxieties.

Resolute against terrorism

by: Attiya Munawer | June 26, 2024

Political instability and terrorism are the root causes of economic problems facing Pakistan. The coalition government is trying its best to overcome all the elements that are standing in the way of the country’s development and prosperity. In this regard, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif approved the launch of Military Operation “Resolve for Stability” (Azm-e-Istehkam) to accelerate the national counterterrorism campaign with the consensus of the entire political and military leadership in the meeting of the apex committee of the National Action Plan. The step has been taken, which is the inevitable requirement of the time, but the opposition is raising objections to this operation. If the opposition’s objections to this operation are removed and the requirements of the constitution and law are given due consideration, then God willing, not only will this effort get full national support, but it will also strengthen the resolve against terrorism and bring lasting peace and stability across the country.

Undoubtedly, terrorism has escalated rather than declined in Pakistan as last year there were 306 terrorism incidents in which 693 people were killed and 1124 were injured, while there have been 332 incidents of terrorism so far this year and casualties are approximately 450. There is a dire need for a preventive and integrated strategy to end terrorism and this strategy was adopted in every period of power and successful operations were also conducted but the menace of terrorism could not be completely eradicated. The main reasons for this have been the failure to eliminate the causes of terrorism and the disagreement and non-cooperation among the parties. The security forces have been working tirelessly to put an end to terrorism with every fresh resolve and have been making endless sacrifices, while the politicians have not stopped playing politics on this, nor are they stopping anytime soon. Where the government seems to be trying to take credit for Azm-e-Istehkam operation, the opposition is raising objections.

Anyone can murmur ill about this operation Resolve for Stability, but it is urgently necessary in Pakistan. Chairman PTI Barrister Gohar asserts parliament must be taken into confidence before beginning any operations in the nation. The PTI’s Asad Qaiser claims that his party will not back any operation that is being conducted above the house, despite the fact that the constitution states that the parliament is supreme regardless of the sacredness of the committee. If an agreement has been reached, it should be brought to the parliament. This objection of the opposition is absolutely right. On the one hand, there is talk of the supremacy of the Parliament and on the other hand, such significant decisions are not only being arranged outside the Parliament but are also being enforced onto members without consultation in the Apex Committee meeting.

Apparently, the meeting of the Special Apex Committee of the National Action Plan has not been held for the first time, nor have any of the things discussed in this meeting are new that has not been discussed earlier in front of the nation. If the reports of the previous operations were also given before the announcement of a new operation, the nation would know what results have been obtained from their resources and how promising outcomes can be expected in the future. In the political and diplomatic realm, there is talk of stepping up efforts to destroy terrorist hideouts through regional cooperation during Operation Azm-e-Istehkam (Resolve for Stability), but there is no explanation for why terrorist hideouts could not be wiped out in earlier operations, even though all operations at that time were declared successful. Thus, where we have to address our shortcomings, we also have to re-evaluate our ineffective strategy, without which we cannot advance nor can a new operation be deemed successful.

There is no doubt that the current security threats have endangered the country’s security and economic stability. CPEC and other projects worth billions of dollars are at stake due to escalating events of terrorism. Everyone refers to how peace and political stability lead to economic stability, however, in this case, a robust operation is indispensable to bring peace and harmony in the country and advance economic cooperation. The need for operation Azm-e-Istehkam is obvious, but it is also absolute to secure a national consensus on this crucial decision, which is possible only with the approval of the parliament. The government has announced to bring the operation Azm-e-Istehkam into parliament pursuant to pressure from the opposition, yet this announcement ought to be carried out as well. If the operation is implemented once again above the Parliament House, then its outcome will be the same as the previous operations, there will be no complete counterterrorism, nor will there be peace and stability in the country and Pakistan’s dream of progressing on the road of development and stability will remain unfulfilled.

Pakistan’s New Counter-Terrorism Campaign

by: Dr Tehmina Aslam Ranjha | June 26, 2024

After presenting the budget in the National Assembly for the Financial Year 2024-25 on June 12, the next task before the government was to address the Chinese concerns over the security of their engineers and whether Pakistan was still interested in the continuation of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

With a high-powered delegation, at the beginning of June, Pakistan’s Prime Minister (PM) Shehbaz Sharif visited China, which was vexed at the loss of lives of Chinese engineers, who were hit by the proscribed Tehreke Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in the northwest and by the Baloch insurgent groups including the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) in the southwest of Pakistan. Though Pakistan tried to compensate for the loss monetarily the air of fear persisted in disheartening fellow engineers from working on projects related to the CPEC.

Pakistan is indebted to China not only for China’s investment in the CPEC worth US$ 62 billion but also for extending loans to help Pakistan avoid sovereign default. China’s commercial banks also provided Pakistan with credits to let the country show its foreign exchange reserve appropriate for securing loans from international lenders. Against this background, it has been embarrassing for Pakistan to see terrorism consuming the lives of Chinese engineers on its land. Above all, if China cannot invest in Pakistan, no other foreign investor can do so either.

Years ago, the US remained wise in dealing with the restive tribal area of Pakistan and the volatile neighbouring Afghan suburbs with drone strikes.

Pakistan has been caught by a dual devil: Islamic militancy and separatist insurgency. Worryingly, both TTP and BLA acquired modern weapons and equipment which were left by the US-NATO troops while leaving Afghanistan on August 30, 2021. In late 2022, both TTP and BLA announced to join ranks against Pakistan, to work on the strategy of sabotage. In November 2022, when the TTP announced to end of its ceasefire, Pakistan witnessed an uptick of terrorist attacks. The BLA also remained active in the southwest storming the Gwadar Port Authority Complex and Turbat naval base near China-run Gwadar Port early this year.

The strategy of sabotage was to undermine the Chinese interests in Pakistan – to disaffect China. Both TTP and BLA expect that by doing so they would win the support of all countries (whether situated near or far) antagonistic to China. On March 26 this year, a suicide attack in Bisham, in the Shangla district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, devoured the lives of five Chinese engineers. Consequently, the engineering work was halted not only on the Dasu dam project but also on the Diamer-Bhasha and Tarbela (5th Extension) Hydropower Project. The aforementioned three high-profile attacks on Chinese personnel and interests this year raised alarm bells in Beijing.

A major challenge before Pakistan is that TTP and BLA have secured sanctuaries in Afghanistan, and also in Iran. On January 18, this year, Pakistan carried out air strikes inside Iran to target the hideouts of the BLA and other rebel groups. On March 18, Pakistan conducted air strikes inside Afghanistan to target the preserves of the TTP. Though Tehran has expressed its willingness to cooperate with Pakistan, Kabul refuses to collaborate.

What has been bandied about is that China is not happy with Pakistan on the measures taken to secure the lives of Chinese engineers. During Pakistan’s PM visit to China, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized Pakistan’s responsibility for creating “a safe, stable and predictable business environment” that would “guarantee the safety of Chinese” personnel and projects.

As if this were not enough. Liu Jianchao, Head of the International Department of the Communist Party of China, visited Islamabad and, on June 21, delivered an unequivocal message publicly to both politicians and the army, who were in attendance. The message was quadruple. First, Pakistan has to improve its internal security situation, the deterioration of which is “shaking the confidence of Chinese investors.”

Second, Pakistan has to improve its business environment. That is, norms and rules governing business are not investment-friendly. Instead, they are fraught with snags. Third, Pakistan has to bring about internal political stability – without which economic stability would remain a dream. Fourth, Pakistan has to nurture a CPEC-friendly media environment, in which rumours and fake news do not spoil the toil. This is the first time China has spoken to Pakistan at a public forum, leaving little to speculate and conceal, thereby demanding that Pakistan has to overcome all four hurdles to mollify China.

The next day, on June 22, Pakistan expressed its resolve to meet all the Chinese concerns. In the meeting of the Central Apex Committee on National Action Plan, the PM declared that, to fight the menace of terrorism, instead of just the army, all institutions and units of the state should work together embodying regional cooperation. The PM also announced to launch of a counter-terrorism campaign titled Operation Azm-e Istehkam (i.e. the will to create stability), as a national resolve to eradicate terrorism from the country. Necessary legislation will also be done.

Critically speaking, Pakistan’s counter-terrorism departments have failed to perform. The same is true about intelligence-gathering institutions. The problem with Pakistan’s decision-makers is that they keep on waiting (and weathering) till a tipping point takes over them. The world has moved from being “reactive” to “pre-emptive” except for Pakistan, which may be good at reaction but bad at pre-emption.

At this time, launching a military operation means more funds to initiate and sustain an operation and its repercussions. The country is struggling to service an enormous foreign debt, besides meeting the budgetary deficit. Inflation is soaring hitting the lower and middle classes hard.

This time, it is expected that Pakistan’s military may have to go inside Afghanistan in hot pursuit to dismantle the TTP sanctuaries. This act might invite multiple challenges. Pakistan has to take a page from the US strategy.

Years ago, the US remained wise in dealing with the restive tribal area of Pakistan and the volatile neighbouring Afghan suburbs with drone strikes and not by sending soldiers on the ground. Pakistan has to plan how it can achieve its targets inside Afghanistan by simultaneously saving the lives of its soldiers.

Time for Kabul to Rein in TTP

by: Sarah Ameer | June 26, 2024

Almost a week ago, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan’s key figure, Abdul Manan alias Hakimullah, was killed in the Kunar region of Afghanistan. Abdul Manan is said to be closely associated with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan’s Malakand Chapter Commander Azmat Ullah Mehsood. As per the reports, Abdul Manan joined Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan back in 2007 and has remained involved in multiple acts of terror, including target killings, IED blasts against security forces, extortion and played a key role in orchestrating terrorist activities in Bajaur.

The killing of Abdul Manan and the reports of internal rifts between the militant groups in Afghanistan offer a glimmer of hope for the terrorism-stricken Pakistan as the country might observe a short-term reduction in terrorist attacks; thereby buying the security forces some time to enhance their counter-terrorism efforts and tactics.

Abdul Manan’s killing is a serious blow to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan as it has created a leadership vacuum which is likely to affect TTP’s operational capabilities for some time. It is reported that Hakimullah also served as a cleric at a madrassa of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan in Sarkano, Kunar province of Afghanistan, and trained some of the key Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan commanders, including Tahir alias Waqar, Umar alias Ismail and others. However, now that its key trainer has been eliminated, the banned outfit might experience temporary hindrances in preparing new operatives effectively, which is again a good omen for Pakistan.

The world community needs to rein in the Afghan Taliban for sheltering the militant organisations.

Most of all, the killing of Hakimullah within an Afghan region reinforces Pakistan’s long-standing stance of Afghanistan being a terrorist haven under the leadership of the Afghan Taliban. Pakistan has time and again urged the Afghan Interim Government (AIG) to take strict action against the terrorist outfits present on their soil, however, the AIG constantly remained in a state of denial and instead gave strong statements against Pakistan despite plenty of evidence.

The repeated incidents reinforcing the presence of high-profile terrorists in Afghanistan make one think that either the Taliban government does not have full control over their territory or they are unwilling to act against the terrorist groups sabotaging the peace and security situation in their neighbouring country.

However, keeping in view the blatant violations of other clauses mentioned in the Doha Agreement, the latter possibility seems more likely, which further raises serious concerns about the Taliban government’s commitment to the Doha Accord.

Pakistan has once again urged the UN Security Council to call on the Taliban government to sever its links with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and its associates; prevent them from carrying out cross-border attacks against Pakistan; disarm the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan terrorists and capture the TTP’s leadership and hand them over to Pakistan.

In case the Afghan Interim Government persists in its current course and doesn’t budge from its stance, this will further exacerbate the already tense relations between both countries. The world community needs to understand the gravity of the situation and rein in the Afghan Taliban for sheltering the militant organizations as it is not only a threat to Pakistan but also to regional peace and stability as the menace of terrorism knows no boundaries. For the Afghan Taliban, honouring the commitments made in the Doha Accord is the only way to redeem themselves and end their prolonged isolation at the international level.

By cooperating in counter-terrorism efforts, the Afghan Interim Government can not only demonstrate their commitment to regional peace but it would also pave the way for the much-needed economic assistance for fighting their domestic challenges, including poverty, unemployment, and a struggling economy. Now, it is upon them to decide whether they want to prioritize harbouring terrorist elements or the well-being of their people.

Exploring ways for a better future

by: Talat Masood| June 26, 2024

Aseefa Bhutto, the young parliamentarian and scion of the Bhutto family, last week made an impressive speech as a part of the debate on the budget for fiscal year 2024-2025. She primarily focused on how the budget would impact on the well-being of the working class and the poor and downtrodden. The presentation did reflect her sensitivities toward the poor cross-section of society, a common positive trait in the Bhutto family. It also indicated it would not be long before she would be an important politician in her own right. Her speech content and mannerism did bear some resemblance of her mother, Benazir Bhutto, who had great compassion and sensitivity toward the poor, which is not a common trait found among elite. It is this quality of hers that endeared her to the masses and left an indelible impression on them.

It is expected that the leadership on both sides of the aisle will prioritise the uplift of the poor and downtrodden. Pakistan can maximise its progress and exploit its potential provided the government focuses on the uplift of the poor and create conditions that could transform their lives. Hopefully, the present and future government’s focus will be on good governance and uplift of the masses. These have been the central planks of political party’s election manifesto but remained largely unrealised. What is disappointing is that there is not sufficient focus on interior Sindh that still remains a deprived region where at places even basic necessities are hard to get. Regrettably, similar hardships are faced by people in Balochistan and in certain places in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.

The leadership keeps reiterating its commitment to the uplift of the masses. The Planning Commission, in consultation with both sides of the aisle, prepares comprehensive and workable plans but it is primarily in the implementation phase that we are weak. There are other areas such as the emancipation of women and the education of girls that has remained neglected especially in rural areas. The primary reason for these slippages is more fundamental and has to be addressed in a broader perspective. Neglecting these areas has cost the country and the people have badly suffered.

The genuine grievances of the Baloch people need to be addressed. Foremost is to remove the impression that they do not have a say in their provincial matters and its governance is in the hands of leaders from other provinces and the army. They seek for more autonomy and authority vested in their leadership.

Other aspect that is of concern is the deteriorating security in K-P in areas close to the Pak-Afghan border where TTP has stepped up attacks. The security situation in Balochistan has been bad for a long time. People have suffered and it has weakened the capacity for local democracy. The Pak-Afghan porous border will remain an issue unless the Afghan government takes deliberate measures to control it. So far, despite Pakistan’s urgings this has not been the case forcing Pakistan to take preemptive measures.

While the government has to seriously focus on the security situation, it is equally important that the leadership addresses some of the major weaknesses in critical areas particularly the education and health sector. Pakistan will be denied its rightful place in the comity of nations and its people will remain in the tutelage of poverty so long as the education and health sectors remain weak. Developments in space and scientific fields are improving our comprehension of not only the world we live in but the universe. We have the capacity to change and our scientists and engineers have proved it in the development of nuclear and conventional areas provided there is the right focus and fair apportioning of resources.

Fighting among political parties and feeble democratic ethos are a drag on the country and taking a toll on the people. Certainly, these are areas or problems that can be addressed. It would be a defeatist mentality to consider that Pakistan is destined to be where it is. However, the responsibility to correct course rests with the political and military leadership. It is not that we do not know the way to go about it but extraneous and self-interest take precedence. For the political elite of ours to render genuine public service they need both a good level of education and character. We are now living in an age that is very different and this has not fully sunk in our elite. This is so apparent from the policies being pursued and the nature of debate and discussions that take place in parliament or at public forums.

Leaders around the world that have made an impact were those who had gone through the rigours of political involvement whilst continuously educating themselves and learning from others. There is a need for the younger generation of leaders to focus on these aspects for meritocracy to be inculcated in the real sense.

Another character trait that needs to be emphasised is the rights of others and due consideration of their expectations. Our own experience of seventy-six years reminds us of how critical it is for leaders to possess these traits and promote them for the efficiency and prosperity of the nation. It is doubtful if any serious thought is being given to inculcate these virtues in the younger leadership.

Whereas there is a long list of what is to be done to change Pakistan’s destiny but certainly priorities by the government have to be given to areas that are fundamental in changing course in the positive direction. Education is certainly one and the other is improving the security situation. With quality education and higher literacy rates job opportunities within and outside the country are likely to increase. This will contribute toward improving the economy and raise country’s image and standing. Focusing on improving the security situation is critical and this is the most challenging task that the government faces. This would require greater vigilance on the border, close coordination with Afghanistan and improvement in the economic conditions of the people living in tribal areas.

There is no escape from focusing and correcting these weaknesses if Pakistan has to have a better future.

Re-emergence of terror threat

by: Dr Syed Akhtar Ali Shah | June 26, 2024

The signing of Doha Agreement was an indicator of the shifting priorities of the US. Engaged in strategic competition with China and Russia, the US and NATO shifted their focus to Indo-Pacific and Europe. Left to its own fate, Afghanistan, under the Taliban, again started drifting to militancy. Reports alleging Afghanistan’s soil being used for terrorism elsewhere soon started pouring in. Pakistan also voiced concerns over the emerging threats of terrorism from the war-ravished country, causing security concerns in the region, in particular.

The United States Institute of Peace (USIP), in its analytical report released recently, claims that terrorist threats from Afghanistan and Pakistan are increasing. The most worrying part of the report is that Afghanistan provides a conducive environment for terrorist groups. The Khorasan branch of Daesh has also been mentioned as a threat beyond the region.

The report further elaborates: “The group’s final report highlights how a terrorist incident in or emanating from Afghanistan or Pakistan could trigger a regional or international crisis, undermine U.S. alliances, and derail attention from strategic competition.” To avoid such a situation, the report offers preventive, sustainable measures that preserve national security interests without taking focus away from global strategic competition.

Voicing his concern, US House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul told The Washington Post, “I got a lot of briefings (about) the rise of the ISIS-K in Afghanistan. We don’t want Afghanistan to become a training ground for Al-Qaeda and ISIS-K again, but that is exactly what is happening, and it will become a threat to the homeland if we don’t pay attention to it.”

In the same vein, Maria Zakharova, a spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, said: “We would like to draw attention to the high level of interaction between the relevant authorities of Russia and Tajikistan in combating the terrorist threat. The objective basis for this is our similar positions on current issues of the international anti-terrorism and anti-extremism agenda, as well as the existence of common challenges and threats, including those related to the activities of several international terrorist organizations in Afghanistan and their harmful activities in spreading extremist ideology in the countries of the region.”

Although the Islamic Emirate has not commented on the USIP report or the Russian Foreign Ministry, it has previously vehemently denied the presence of terrorist groups on Afghan soil.

The Russian Defence Minister also labelled Afghanistan as a source of instability in Central Asia during a recent security meeting in Kyrgyzstan.

According to the USIP, more than 20 terrorists wings, including ISIS, are active in Afghanistan, significantly disturbing the security in the region. Acute poverty and unemployment provide a fertile environment to the terrorist organisations for recruitment and operations

The US, according to reports, is contemplating implementing a new counterterrorism strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan with an aim to deal with the rising threats of terrorism from the region. The proposed strategy may not be so expansive like in the past, but would adopt all measures short of intervention with boots. The focus of the strategy is to create deterrence and when necessary to disrupt terrorist threats in Afghanistan and Pakistan that could target the US and its interests overseas as well as its allies and major partners.

Suggestive measures in the USIP report include: continuing to publicly pressure Taliban to mitigate terrorist threats, and maintain communication channels, by adopting a carrot and stick policy; developing a public reporting mechanism to document and disseminate the Taliban’s compliance with the counterterrorism terms outlined in the 2020 Doha Agreement between the US and the Taliban; holding a meeting of regional countries to codify the Taliban’s counterterrorism commitments to each country, adding to the federal terrorism watch list, before sanctioning (under US Executive Order 13324), Taliban leaders and personnel assisting terrorists in the country; and increasing military and intelligence resources dedicated to counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan but keeping them below the withdrawal level.

The suggestive actions also include lethal action in Afghanistan against the groups intending to plan or are involved in plots against the US homeland and interests; employing drones as show of force against Taliban leaders and other terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda; and take steps to disrupt cyber-communication.

From the aforementioned reports, it can easily be deduced that the region is not only under the radar of superpowers, but the countries of the region also share the same concern. In such a situation, Pakistan is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. Pressure for escalated action against militants is likely to increase on Pakistan too, apart from Afghanistan. There is thus a likelihood of a rise in terrorist incidents as a reaction. For this, preparedness is imperative. The new developments require a well though-out strategy based on the realisation that it is also a homegrown problem, with connections beyond the borders. Therefore, focus has to be on sleeper and active cells of the militants within the country. Apart from this, the supply chain of the network with connections abroad has to be broken.

Critical days for Modi and Rivals - Jauned Naqvi

by: Jawed Naqvi | June 25, 2024

On this day in 1945, the United Nations (UN) came into force when the five permanent members of the Security Council ratified its charter. This followed a declaration by the UN General Assembly in 1947 which designated May 29 as United Nations Day, by proclaiming that the day would be instrumental in making people aware of the aims and achievements of the UN and to gain their support for its work.

Since its creation, Pakistan has played a significant role as a UN member in bringing peace through active diplomatic, moral and material support in various regions of the world. Therefore, this day reminds one of Pakistan’s armed forces’ contribution in UN peacekeeping measures, during war and peacetime.

Pakistan’s armed forces are considered the best organized institutions, and are highly respected in the country, as since the founding of Pakistan, its military has played a key role in holding the state together, promoting a feeling of nationhood and providing a bastion of selfless service.

Today, Pakistan’s position as one of the largest troop-contributing countries in the world with one of the highest peacekeepers’ casualty figures is testimony to its commitment and endeavours towards promoting the noble cause of global peace. It is not easy to achieve peace in the world’s conflict-ridden areas. However, the Pakistan Army’s history is replete with sacrifices, services to humanity and promoting collective security for human prosperity.

In this regard, Pakistan is a big player in UN peacekeeping forces. Pakistan joined the United Nations on 30 September 1947. Since 1960, it has been actively involved in most of the UN peacekeeping missions. The ajor contributions of the Pakistan Army have been in Congo, Liberia, Somalia, Ivory Coast, Western Sahara, Sierra Leone, Bosnia, Kosovo, Georgia, East Timor Haiti among others. Even at present, more than 8200 troops of the Pakistan Army are engaged in different peacekeeping missions across various volatile countries.

The performance of Pakistani peacekeepers has been recognized worldwide by several world leaders including those of the UN. An undeniable professional standing of Pakistani forces has made them the passion of every special representative of Secretary General and Force Commander in each of UN peacekeeping operations. In this respect, Pakistan’s dedication towards the UN has been acknowledged by UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon who himself visited Pakistan and inaugurated the Centre for International Peace and Stability (CIPS) on 13 August 2013 and praised Pakistan’s efforts in UN peacekeeping missions.

However, Pakistan has participated in 41 UN missions in 23 states where a total 142,542 Pakistani personnel were engaged, starting from the UN Congo Operation in 1960. The Pakistan Army delivered its services there, and contributed in ordnance, transport and staff. It remained in Congo, and provided a battalion group comprising one infantry battalion and supporting elements.

Pakistan’s Armed Forces’ positive contribution in the UN peacekeeping measures reflects Islamabad’s desire to see the principles of human dignity, freedom and self-determination.

For maintaining and monitoring the ceasefire during the transition of West Irian from Dutch rule to Indonesia, Pakistan contributed 1500 infantry troops from 3 October 1962 to 30 April 1963. In a rare acknowledgement of their excellent role, Chinese Premier Chou-En-Lai had said, “The only example in United Nation’s history, when United Nations force had gone …performed its role honestly and came out, was Pakistan’s military contingent to Indonesia.”

Besides, Pakistan’s contribution was in the United Nations Yemen Observer Mission (UNYOM) as a military observer from January to September 1964. Yemen entered a state of civil war in 1962. To ensure that this conflict did not escalate into a global incident, the UN set up its Yemen Observation Mission. And, United Nations Transition Assistance Group in Namibia (UNTAG) was established to assist the special representative of the UN Secretary General to ensure the early independence of Namibia through free and fair elections, and to carry out a number of other duties. For this purpose, 20 military observers from the Pakistan Army performed their duties from 1 April 1989 to 21 March 1990 in Namibia.

Notably, the Pakistan Army played a positive role in the Middle East, and was on the forefront for peace restoration. The United Nations Iraq-Kuwait Observer Mission (UNIKOM) was set up in April 1991, following the forced withdrawal of Iraqi forces from Kuwait. Its task was to monitor the demilitarised zone along the Iraq-Kuwait border and deter border violations. Pakistani forces which helped continued their services there from April 1991 to 2003 were assigned the most difficult area in the north of Kuwait city— reclamation of Bubiyan Island was also entrusted to them. The operation was carried out by a task force of Pakistan Army Engineers. The professionalism and dedication displayed by this force was praised at international level.

While part of the the United Nations Transitional Authority on Cambodia (UNTAC), Pakistan’s military forces carried out peacekeeping operations in the most thorny and remote areas from May 1992 to August 1993. They overcame enormous logistical and operational problems, and proved their courage and determination by defending themselves and those for whom they were sent. Coping with the odds, they handled crisis after crisis and persuaded the warring factions to lay down their arms.

And on the request of the UN in Latin America under the United Nations Mission in Haiti (UNMIH), Pakistan provided one infantry battalion, which arrived in Haiti in March 1995 and was deployed in Cape Haitien— the area faced an extremely volatile security situation and was also the hotbed of political agitation. It discharged its duties with an extensive patrolling programme, covering various regions there.

Nevertheless, Pakistan’s army has worked in difficult terrains and situations for global peace. Now, inside the country, although Pakistan’s armed forces are facing a tough situation in the wake of the war on terror, they are contributing to global peace and prosperity; having still a large presence in various parts of the world.

Now, the major powers must abandon their false propaganda against Pakistan and its Armed Forces, as the latter did more in response to international demands for world peace.

While, in pursuance of Pakistan Army’s unwavering commitment towards international peace, six Pakistani soldiers have sacrificed their lives. In this connection, Five of the six— Tahir Ikram, Tahir Mehmood, Mohammed Naeem, Adil Jan and Mohammed Shafiq were from Pakistan’s armed forces, while the sixth, Ibrar Syed, was a civilian. In this regard, at the UN Headquarters, Secretary-General António Guterres presided over a ceremony at which the Dag Hammarskjöld Medals of Courage were awarded posthumously to 117 military, police and civilian peacekeepers, including six Pakistanis.

In this respect, Pakistan’s UN Ambassador Munir Akram stated: “We are committed to helping the vulnerable communities affected by conflict and will continue to adapt to the changing environment and needs of the peacekeeping operations”.

Nonetheless, Pakistan’s Armed Forces’ positive contribution in the UN peacekeeping measures reflects Islamabad’s desire to see the principles of human dignity, freedom and self-determination.

Third time’s [not]the charm?

by: By Hussain H Zaidi| June 25, 2024

Although it couldn’t prevent Narendra Modi from winning a third back-to-back term, the opposition in India has done a creditable job by cutting him down to size. The man who deserves credit for springing up this electoral shock is undoubtedly Congress leader Rahul Gandhi.

As widely predicted, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged as the single largest party in the recently concluded Indian elections, winning 240 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, the lower house of the Indian parliament. However, contrary to most predictions, it fell well-short of not only a simple majority of 272 but even more of its previous electoral tally of 303 as well (in 2019).

The downswing in the BJP’s fortunes is accompanied by an upswing in that of the Congress, bagging 99 seats compared with 52 that it won in 2019, which had marked the grand old party’s second worst-ever electoral performance after the 2014 debacle when it could win only 44 seats.

The BJP secured 36.5 per cent of the total votes cast down from 37.8 per cent in 2019. The Congress improved its voting share from 19.7 to 21.2 per cent.

Other major players include the Uttar Pradesh (UP)-based Samajwadi Party (SP) and the West Bengal-based All India Trinamool Congress (AITC), currently at the helm in the state, returning from 37 (compared with five in 2019) and 29 (compared with 22 in 2019) constituencies respectively.

Being India’s most populous state, UP has the largest number of seats (80) in the Lok Sabha and historically has tipped the scales in electoral outcomes. Both Modi and Gandhi successfully contested from the state. West Bengal is ranked fourth among the states in terms of population (42 Lok Sabha seats) and historically is marked out for leading political resistance against the powerful.

Both the SP and the AITC, as well as the Congress, are part of the multiparty Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), formed in 2023 to challenge the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the ensuing elections.

Overall, the NDA secured 293 seats (42.5 per cent of the total votes cast) down from 351 it held previously, whereas INDIA won in 234 constituencies (40.6 per cent of the votes). Neither the NDA nor INDIA contested the polls under a common symbol, as in both cases the constituent parties fielded candidates independently with seat adjustments.

State wise, the BJP swept the polls in Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat (Modi’s home state), Odisha, Assam and New Delhi (union territory). Although the party won more seats from UP (33) than from any other state, it was pipped by the SP.

In Punjab and Tamil Nadu, it failed to secure a single seat. In all, compared with 2019, in 2024 the BJP lost 29 seats in UP, 14 in Maharashtra, 10 in Rajasthan, six in West Bengal, five each in Bihar and Haryana, three in Jharkhand, and two in Punjab. Thus, it is in the Hindi-speaking belt (UP, Bihar, Rajasthan, Haryana, etc), which has been the BJP’s power base over the years, that it has suffered reversals. How can we account for the ruling party’s below par performance?

The Indian economy is undoubtedly the headline contributor. Modi has presided over fast economic growth. Between 2014 and 2018, the economy grew on average 7.4 per cent a year, while for the period 2019-2023, the average annual growth slowed down to 4.4 per cent mainly due to Covid-induced 5.8 per cent economic contraction in 2020.

India is at present the world’s fifth-largest economy and, at current growth rates, is poised to overtake Germany and Japan in a matter of years to become the third largest, only behind the US and China.

At the same time, the BJP’s pro-rich economic policies have put India on course to becoming an oligopoly (to many an Ambani-Adani duopoly). Not only have they benefited mega-industrial houses at the expense of small and medium enterprises, they have neglected the agricultural sector as well in a predominantly rural nation. Having forced the Modi government into repealing the three ‘anti-farmer’ laws in 2021, farmers were back on the roads earlier this year, seeking legally mandatory purchase prices for all crops.

Not surprisingly, international organizations frequently point to India as a textbook example of a highly skewed income distribution. According to the Global Wealth Report, 2023, a publication of Switzerland-based Credit Suisse, the top 1.0 per cent in India, which make up only 0.07 per cent of the total adult population, accounted for 41 per cent of the total national wealth in 2022, up from 40.5 and 40.6 per cent respectively in 2020 and 2021.

By this standard, India has the second highest – only behind Brazil – wealth inequality among the major economies. India’s Gini Index, a widely used measure of income or wealth inequality, was 82.6 per cent, up from 82.2 per cent in 2020 and 82.3 per cent in 2021, which is among the highest in the world. At the other end of the scale, 78 per cent of the adult population in India has wealth below $10,000.

The growing economic disparities were a stick with which the opposition beat the ruling party in the run-up to the elections. It was partly against the ‘trickle-down’ policies that Rahul Gandhi organized his ‘Bharat Joro Yatra’ (Unite India March) from September 2022 to January 2023. In both cases, the opposition questioned the utility of rapid economic growth if it benefited only a small section of society at the expense of the vast majority.

Since its establishment, the BJP has thrived on the Hindutva narrative: that India must be a strong, unified state fashioned on Hindu values with total domination of the majority community. The rise of the BJP and the eclipse of the Congress has set the stage for Hindutva to replace secularism as the dominant ethos of the Indian polity. In Modi, the party has a leader who is a picture-perfect personification of its Hindutva narrative and all it signifies.

He has made Indians believe, the way none before him could, that for centuries Hindus despite being in a veritable majority have been humiliated in their homeland and that now it is time to turn the tide. During the 2024 election campaign, Modi and his leaders made it a point to whip up the anti-Muslim sentiments.

It will be premature to infer from the emaciation of the BJP that the electorate has rejected its divisive or identity politics. It seems that the core BJP supporters have remained loyal to the party, otherwise it wouldn’t have returned as the single largest party. At any rate, Hindutva is so deeply rooted in Indian polity that it will take decades to uproot it.

In South Asian politics, men (and women) are as important as measures. Thus finally, we come to the man who more than anyone else made a divided opposition and its supporters believe that Modi is not invincible. Rahul Gandhi’s ‘yatra’, during which he travelled more than 4,000km across the country on foot, did much to set the stage for making a common cause against the BJP’s divisive politics and growing economic inequalities. Not only that, it also served to bolster his image, whom his rivals would derisively brand as a ‘shahzada’ (a prince) and ‘pappu’ (callow), who was no match for an austere and hardy Modi. It also sent out the message that despite its back-to-back electoral reversals, India’s grand old party was still politically relevant. The yatra thus gave the Congress and the rest of the opposition a new narrative, which in the end they employed successfully.

Having humbled Modi, the new, and more uphill task, for Gandhi will be to keep the opposition – which represents a hotchpotch of political and ethnic interests – united. India is a country where coalitions and alliances are not particularly known for their longevity, especially when the other side has both state support and bags full of money backed by a loyal and vociferous, if not yobbish, corporate media.

In any event, Gandhi has established himself as one who upheld the cause of secularism and equality in one of the most ethnically diverse countries and largest economies in the world.

Unemployment in Balochistan

by: Manahil Bazai | June 25, 2024

Human resource development significantly contributes to the economic growth and productivity of a nation. Achieving socioeconomic development is not possible without managing the youth bulge and catering to them with skill development initiatives. Skilled individuals are of paramount significance for sustainable growth and development. They drive innovation and bring in new technologies, products, and services that significantly contribute to economic diversification by allowing several industries to flourish and come out of the traditional trap. As a result, it reduces vulnerability to socioeconomic issues and enhances resilience. In this regard, Balochistan is lagging behind the other provinces in several socioeconomic indicators despite having the potential. Its educated youth is increasingly feeling frustrated because years of university cannot guarantee them a job to make ends meet. This is due to several reasons that include a lack of industry-education linkages, limited market-based and technical skills, and a dearth of entrepreneurial programs.

In 2021, approximately 25000 students of Balochistan graduated from different universities in Pakistan and merely 2000 students were able to secure jobs in the public and private sectors. The labor force survey of 2021 shows that Balochistan has the highest unemployment rate among other provinces in Pakistan, reaching 9.13%. This is primarily due to the lack of job opportunities in the province and the non-existent private sector. Another reason for this high rate is the disconnect between industry and universities. This impedes students from exploring their respective fields in the practical realm leading to limited knowledge about practical implications. When these students graduate from university, they usually rely on government jobs that are very limited in commensuration with the graduates entering the market each year. Industries and academic institutions should collaborate to start taking proactive measures to address these shortages. Several widely recognized and readily attainable remedies include a well-designed internship program that can provide industry-based experience and skills.

One of the contributing factors to this unemployment is the lack of market-based skills in the graduates. Some disciplines in universities are being taught but have less relevance to the skills demanded in the market. The theoretical side is more focused than the practical one. These institutions have not enabled the students to acquire market-essential skills. According to the International Labor Organization (ILO), the labor force participation rate of youth in the province is 44.44% which is the lowest in Pakistan. One of the reasons is that the graduates often migrate to other provinces for better opportunities in the private sector and end up in the trap of low-paid jobs and turn out in hopelessness. Thus, the institutions must recognize the significance of skills and design a mechanism that allows students to acquire skills that are necessary for survival in the uncertain labor market in Balochistan.

Keeping the economic situation of Pakistan in general and Balochistan in particular, it is the need of the hour to have skilled youth that creates opportunities for themselves and others as well. For this to be practical the authorities and educational institutions must play their role. All educational institutions should implement major structural changes, primarily at the bachelor’s degree level, to support and empower our children to meet the demands of the labor market. To expand the students’ skill set, the institutes should also introduce and include them in a variety of skill development activities. Students should be encouraged to work alongside studies that will allow them to acquire professional skills before their graduation.

Entrepreneurial culture should be promoted in educational institutions. Currently, the National Incubation Centre, Quetta at BUTIEMS is playing a significant role in empowering the entrepreneurs in the province. In the past three years startups from 22 districts have been attracted by NIC, a clear indication of its role in encouraging entrepreneurial culture. Since 2018, it has graduated 65 startups that have generated 480 jobs with cumulative sales of approximately 86 million rupees and investment of 68 million rupees. The authorities must encourage the development of such kind of institutions that promote innovation and create self-employed people through entrepreneurship. There is a need for a behavioral change to shift ourselves from the mentality of Sarkari Naukri “Government Job” towards entrepreneurship. In the short run, the authorities should increase the allocation for skills development and entrepreneurship. On the other hand, in the long run, educational institutions should play their role by making entrepreneurial ventures as a crucial element of their overall educational structure.

War Against Resurging Terrorism

by: Faisal Ahmad| May 25, 2024

Recent terrorist attacks in Pakistan are serving the stark reminder of clear and present security threats emanating from Afghan soil. The recurrence of terrorist attacks with alarmingly short intervals and extreme precision indicates the availability of ample support to the terrorists from some very powerful players.

Undeniably, recurring terrorist attacks are aimed at sabotaging the Pak-China bilateral ties. The terrorist outfits involved in these attacks and their handlers are trying to derail the projects linked with CPEC to dent the economic stability of Pakistan.

Armed forces are playing a key role in the war against terrorism. Recent successful counter-terrorism operations have swiftly avenged the precious blood of defenders. Intelligence agencies diligently tracked down and targeted the terrorists along with their facilitators hiding in underground shelters. Complex intelligence-led counter-terrorism operation speaks volumes about the professionalism of the intelligence and law enforcement agencies.

Security experts are rightly intrigued that from where these terrorist groups acquire sophisticated weapons, training, intelligence support and foot soldiers. It was revealed by CTD Baluchistan that local ethno-lingual Baloch separatist outfits and Afghanistan-based religiously motivated extremist factions of banned TTP are forming collaborations to expand the terror networks. This is taking place from Afghanistan with the full support of the Indian agency RAW. India, being a blue-eyed ally of anti-China Western powers and all-weather rival of Pakistan, has all the reasons to derail the CPEC-related projects. Soft corner prevailing in the Interim Afghan government about militant groups is a kind of much-needed bonus for any power interested in hiring foot soldiers.

The terrorist outfits involved in these attacks and their handlers are trying to derail the projects linked with CPEC.

Such penetrating and precise attacks cannot be executed without the support of a power having deep pockets and larger designs. Rapid sliding of Afghanistan down the slope on account of cross-border terrorism, human rights violations and gender discrimination against women has been a source of constant trouble for regional players.

An epicentre of terrorism like Afghanistan under the unrecognized unelected regime of the Taliban would continue to endanger regional security on many accounts. Pakistan is on a course to straighten up matters with Afghanistan without tolerating the nonsensical acts.

The interim Taliban regime should weigh out the consequences of hurting the interests of neighbours like Pakistan and China. It will not be easy for Afghanistan to move ahead while carrying on her back the baggage of internationally banned terrorist outfits, foreign-sponsored proxies and freelance extremist foot soldiers.

The clear stance of Pakistan about the troublesome presence of banned TTP on Afghan soil is getting validated with every passing day. Recently Pakistan’s envoy to the UN has reminded the Interim Afghan government about her unfulfilled commitments on the issue of cross-border terrorism. The official stance of the Interim Afghan government is detrimental to regional peace and damaging the fragile bilateral ties.

Saner quarters in Afghan Taliban ranks oppose the idea of supporting anti-Pakistan outfits but advocates of the opposite opinion are prevailing so far. A long list of terrorist groups thriving on